Why the Elliott wave principle is important to your survival.
Would you be offended if I asked you to please click on the Google +1 button below? Also, help SAVE THE WORLD by playing it forward. Please Like/share/socialize/bookmark each page you go to. Important! Doing both means Google will advance page upward in the search results. Thank you very very much.
Elliott Wave Principle: Are We Set Up for a Perfect Storm?
How to Put the Wave Principle to Work
In the video below, EWI Senior Commodity Analyst Jeffrey Kennedy walks you
through a basic checklist of how to put the Wave Principle to work. This clip
was taken from The Wave Principle Applied webinar, originally recorded for Futures
Junctures subscribers.
The Elliott Wave principle Deflation and the Greater Depression.
By Delwyn Lounsbury - THE DEFLATION GURU
The Elliot wave principle and Elliott wave theory were first formulated by Ralph Nelson Elliott. In the 1930's, Ralph Nelson Elliott found that the stock market prices moved in recognizable patterns. These patterns or waves had five variations and were repetitive in form, but not always in time or amplitude. He described how the Elliott Waves link together to form the same patterns as the next larger size (fractal), and so on and so on. This structured progression phenomenon is The Elliott Wave Principle. It can be used by you to predict both market direction and market timing according to its proponents.
An Elliott wave observes three rules (impulsive or main trend)
(1) Wave 2 always retraces less than 100% of wave 1.
(2) Wave 3 cannot be the shortest of the three impulse waves, namely waves 1, 3 and 5.
(3) Wave 4 does not overlap with the price territory of wave 1, except in the rare case of a diagonal triangle.
A common guideline in a five-wave pattern, waves 2 and 4 will often take alternate forms; a sharp move in wave 2, for example, will suggest a mild move in wave 4.
Corrective wave patterns unfold in forms known as zigzags, flats, or triangles evidenced by 3 waves A - B - C. The Greater Depression (The year 2000 dot com stock mania panic climax top to the 2016 -2018 market low with the Dow under 1,000) will be a big A - B - C down with all main downward moves(impulsive since the main trend is down) showing us as 5 waves with corrections of 3's up. Stock charts since 2000 are in 5's down!
In 1960, A. J. Frost became a partner of the late Hamilton Bolton, who introduced him to the Elliott Wave principle. After Bolton's death in 1967, Frost wrote two Elliott Wave Supplements. In 1977 he delivered a speech on Elliott and met Mr. Robert Prechter.
Robert Prechter co-authored with A. J. Frost C.F.A., to write the book, ELLIOTT WAVE PRINCIPLE - KEY TO MARKET BEHAVIOR in 1978.
The Elliott Wave Principle and Elliot Wave theory can be a good forecasting tool as it is a detailed map of how markets behave from looking back and then extrapolating what direction they may go in the future at degrees of scale. Since the stock market in total is such a big compilation of human work, production and endeavor; it follows nicely along the wave principle patterns. Prechter has found that markets even in very short time periods can go through an Elliot Wave sequence.
Again, if the market is in a major long term trend, the Elliott Wave is a motive or impulse of five distinct price movements leading to a climax or blow off top or bottoming crash with periods of smaller three wave A-B-C retracing part of the 5 wave impulse up. Robert Prechter says this is a Grand Supercyle top!
In bear markets the Elliott Wave is a corrective wave or Zigzag of three large A-B-C price movements down to a bottom or crash with five waves pointing down in down legs. This is what the wave structure is doing right now! See Graph: According to Robert Prechter, this proves we are in a secular long term bear market.
Amazingly, that is exactly what is going on right now. The market is in retreat and the waves down have been in fives since the year 2000 top! It is undeniable evidence we are in a secular bear market. This bear market's large degree of scale is evidence we are in the Elliot Wave Principle as a Grand Super Cycle decline three times as large and long as the 1930's great depression. So, we are already ten years into the Greater Depression. It is due to bottom out in 2016-2018. In fact, the stock indexes evidenced a 10 to 13 year head and shoulders topping formation (a technical indicator) with a bearish down trending neckline. A neckline is the line drawn on the graph connecting bottoms of intermediate moves.
The Elliott Wave
A complete cycle is eight waves made up of two distinct phases.
1. The five-wave motive phase (also called a "five"), whose sub-waves are numbers.
2. The three-wave corrective phase (also called a "three"), whose sub-waves are denoted by letters. These waves can compound into patterns of one degree larger but the form is constant. Then the next eight-waves (5 impulsive and then 3 reactionary) compound into patterns one degree larger, and so on. Building a bigger and bigger (fractal). Regardless of degree, the form is constant.
R. N. Elliott had three consistent Elliot Wave Principle rules of the five-wave form.
1. Wave 2 never moves beyond the start of wave 1.
2. Wave 3 is never the shortest wave.
3. Wave 4 never enters the price territory of wave 1.
FRACTICALITY, FIVENESS AND FIBONACCI
Fibonacci (c. 1170-c. 1250) was an Italian mathematician who came up with the number sequence as the sum of the previous two numbers starting with 0 and 1 - 0, 1, 1, 3, 5, 8, 13 and so on. Higher up in this sequence he closer of two consecutive "Fibonacci numbers" divided by each other will approach the golden ratio of .618: (to) 1 - Phi, also know as THE GOLDEN SEXTANT or the GOLDEN NUMBER. Very important!
When analysts talk about the.618 retrace level they are referring to Elliott Wave and Fibonacci number fractal studies and points where markets often make a turn. Important Elliott Wave Fibonacci turning points are .382, .50, .618 (phi also known as the golden number, golden mean or golden sextant ruling all) - 1.382 - 1.50 - 1.682. Not enough attribution is given to these important numbers although awareness is growing in the investment and financial world. Especially, since this is where markets seem make a turn every time.
Robert Prechter has found many instances of Fibonacci and fractals along with the Elliot Wave Principle in nature and human relationships including:
1. Just about anything that data can be collected and shown in graphic form will show Elliott Waves.
2. Spirals in seeds, hurricanes, sheep horns, snail shells the mathematics is Fibonacci number related.
3. Branches in trees, arteries, animal brain and lung construction. Phi allows more efficiency and robustness, according to Robert Prechter.
4 Stock, bond & commodity markets in short and long time frames. Since man is a herd animal and the stock market is a compilation of the work and industry of a mankind in total, Elliott Wave Principles, fractals and Fibonacci in looking backward and predicting future retracing and support levels.
5. 5 pointed star or a spot on a line all math involved is Fibonacci.
6. Social man - self organizing progress ruled by Fibonacci mathematics because it allows the greatest efficiency and robustness. Precter has tracked use of words such as
“Deflation” and found they fit the 5 wave impulse and 3 wave retracement Elliott parameters and tend to turn at Fibonacci points.
7. Arboration. Not just the branching angles larger to smaller as one travels out from the plants base, but how stems and leaves both rotate around the base of the stem or branch and spread to optimize the sunlight they receive.
8. Fractals - think broccoli - each small spear is a mirror image of the large bunch. Think tree -a branch is image of whole. Think coastline - edge of tide pool looks same as the whole coastline if looking down from airplane. So, stock, bond and commodity charts show this same relationship in scale.
8. Evidence clear down to sub-atomic particle behavior. Particles bouncing off walls of container look like coiled ferns, a look best defined by Fibonacci calculations.
9. The limbic system in the brain relates to emotional feelings and guides behavior required for self-preservation and the preservation of the species. If early man did not get along with the clan he was thrown out of the cave to freeze to death or was stoned to death. Likewise, if he did not conform with and follow his clan he was likely to get eaten by wild animals, get kicked out of the cave or get left behind to starve to death. So, mankind invests the same way. Buying more and more as prices rise (evidence is the recent real estate top) and conversely being afraid to buy at price low points.
10. Socionomics - Robert Prechters melding of sociology and economics. His theory is mankind's mood changes from positive(waxing) to negative (waning) and since man is a herd animal he tends to invest at tops and sell at bottoms.
Robert Prechter has also, more recently, found evidence in markets and in nature of Elliott Wave principle, Elliott Wave theory, Fibonacci and fractals all working together. His new study of Socionomics combines sociology with economics and Elliott Wave, Fibonacci and fractals all together. Socionomics says society's mood will swing form optimism (waxing) to pessimism (waning) and then back again. We are in the pessimism phase when World Wars happen! Deflation and the Greater Depression Dead Ahead! Cash is King in a deflation! The Elliott wave principle proves it. Learn more about the Elliott wave principle by joining Club EWI for free at links on this site. Then really learn about Elliott wave principle by subscribing to Robert Prechter's monthly newsletter publication.
Copyright 2010 - by Delwyn Lounsbury - THE DEFLATION GURU
Reprint rights allowed with attribution back to:
http://www.deflationeconomy.com
ELLIOTT WAVE INTERNATIONAL is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.
Robert Prechter, Chartered Market Technician, is the founder and CEO of Elliott Wave International, author of Wall Street best sellers "Conquer the Crash" and "Elliott Wave Principle" and editor of "The Elliott Wave Theorist" monthly market letter since 1979.
Robert Prechter and his Elliott Wave International (the world's largest independent financial reporting service) began warning about the consequences of too much credit in the economy and the housing markets in the early 1990's. They kept subscribers well ahead of the 2000 dot com mania bubble top and the housing market debacle that started in 2006 (which still inflicts ruinous consequences both on those who purchased homes and on the U.S. economy). With a staff of 50 they continue to stay ahead of the economy and the financial markets. You can stay ahead, too, by starting a FREE Club EWI membership plus get your FREE 90 page "Deflation Guidebook" at:
The following is from Club EWI.
Get Free 90 page DOWNLOAD What Is Deflation? eBook at links on this page. Education is important. Isn't it?
How Can I Apply the Wave Principle?
When investors first discover the Elliott Wave Principle, they’re often most impressed by its ability to predict where a market will head next.
And it is impressive. But its real power doesn’t end there. The Elliott Wave Principle also gives you a method for identifying at what points a market is most likely to turn. And that, in turn, gives you guidance as to where you might enter and exit positions for the highest probability of success.
So, how do you begin applying the Elliott Wave Principle? By starting at its most basic level. The Elliott Wave Principle works by identifying patterns in market prices. So, in other words, we start by analyzing waves on a chart.
Elliott’s pattern consists of “impulsive waves” and “corrective waves.” An impulsive wave is composed of five subwaves. It moves in the same direction as the trend of the next larger size. A corrective wave is divided into three subwaves. It moves against the trend of the next larger size.
As the figure below shows, these basic patterns build to form five and three-wave structures of increasingly larger size (larger “degree,” as Elliott said).
In the above illustration, waves 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 together complete a larger impulsive sequence, labeled wave (1). The impulsive structure of wave (1) tells us that the movement at the next larger degree of trend is also upward. It also warns us to expect a three-wave correction — in this case, a downtrend.
That correction, wave (2), is followed by waves (3), (4) and (5) to complete an impulsive sequence of the next larger degree, labeled as wave 1. At that point, again, a three-wave correction of the same degree occurs, labeled as wave 2.
So, in applying the Elliott Wave Principle, our first task is to look at charts of market action and identify any completed five-wave and three-wave structures. Only then can we interpret where the market is and where it’s likely to go.
But while applying the Elliott Wave Principle to any chart, we must keep in mind an important point. The Elliott Wave Principle does not provide certainty about any one market outcome. Instead, it gives you an objective means of determining the probability of a future direction for the market. At any time, two or more valid wave interpretations usually exist. So, it’s important for any investor or trader to carefully assess the probability of each interpretation.
View the Elliott Wave Principle as your road map to the market and your investment idea as a trip. We start the trip with a specific plan in mind, but conditions along the way may force us to alter our course. “Alternate counts” are simply side roads that sometimes end up being the best path.
Elliott’s highly specific rules keep the number of valid interpretations (or “alternate counts”) to a minimum. The analyst usually considers as “preferred” the one that satisfies the largest number of guidelines. The top “alternate” is the one that satisfies the next largest number of guidelines, and so on. Alternates are an essential part of using the Elliott Wave Principle.
Another key to applying the Elliott Wave Principle is Fibonacci ratios. Few investors realize that Fibonacci analysis of the markets was pioneered by R.N. Elliott. The use of Fibonacci ratios requires a valid Elliott wave interpretation as a starting point. Elliott had two chief insights concerning Fibonacci relationships within waves. First, corrective waves tend to retrace prior impulse waves of the same degree in Fibonacci proportion — common wave relationships include 38%, 50% and 62%. Second, impulse waves of the same degree within a larger impulse sequence tend to relate to one another in Fibonacci proportion.
Wave interpretation rules and Fibonacci relationships together are powerful tools for establishing investment strategies and reducing risk exposure. Applying the Elliott Wave Principle aids investors in deciding where to get in, where to get out and at what point to give up on a strategy. Thus, the Elliott Wave Principle lets you identify the highest probability direction for the market.
The basics of the Wave Principle remain as Elliott formulated them. Those basics are fully described in the standard textbook of wave analysis, Elliott Wave Principle — Key to Market Behavior, by A.J. Frost and Robert R. Prechter, Jr. (Prechter is founder and president of Elliott Wave International.) That book rescued the Elliott Wave Principle from obscurity and propelled it to worldwide acceptance as perhaps the most sophisticated form of technical analysis. Remember applying the Elliott Wave Principle is simple, but mastering that application takes years of practice and hard work. Yet, it is worth it to take the time and learn how to make proper counts. There are several Elliott Wave software applications out there that claim to do all the best wave counts for you, but with all the variables in the market, it is much better to make the counts yourself.
To learn more, please visit our Club EWI homepage, where we offer several resources to help you in applying the Elliott Wave Principle.
Join Club EWI by clicking links on this page.
HURRY! TIME IS RUNNING OUT FOR YOU TO MAKE THE CORRECT MOVES TO SURVIVE.
OPPORTUNITY FOR YOU! Learn How To Create A Website Like This One(Rated Top 85% In Only Two Months). No HTML just copy & paste!
Now more than ever, folks are looking for alternatives. In times of uncertainty, people make lasting decisions to learn new skills and start-up new businesses.
Here is everything that SBI! eLearning represents...
o New skills o New knowledge o A new community of like-minded learners o Personal accountability that leads to personal triumph o New hope And a new recession-proof business that can forge a path to a brighter future! It's amazing what we include for the price!
All you have to do folks is have a chance to get a foot in the door of opportunity... Here it is! Click to check out the low cost, money back guaranteed, use anywhere in the world home
study eLearning course used at over 30 colleges.
1. Check out the new pricing highlights on the SBI! eLearning.
2. Personally used and endorsed 100% by Delwyn Lounsbury
publisher http://www.surrogacy-surrogate-mother.com (Rated PR1 by Google and rated top 91% in 4 months) Course includes training, niche selection, videos, proprietary keyword BRAINSTORMING, blog, RSS, Forum, 1 yr HOSTING, newsletter opt-in forms, autoresponder, graphics and link libraries, members link exchange, etc. - etc. Compare NOW! Click Below!