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An Incredibly Simple, Rarely Used Way to Book 170% Gains

By Dan Steinhart

Editor’s note: You’ll find a very important theme running through the Dispatch over the next five days…

We’re going to discuss the secrets of Casey Research founder Doug Casey’s wildly successful investment strategy…one that has made him tens of millions of dollars in the markets. For each of the next five days, you’ll receive an essay about how this strategy can potentially add tens of thousands of dollars a year to your investment returns…


It's one of the most valuable ideas in finance…

This idea is simple and extremely powerful. It forms the basis of a highly profitable stock-picking system…one that consistently beats the market during both bull and bear markets…with a 104-year track record to prove it.

The system doesn’t give “buy signals” often. But when it does, the results are incredible. Used correctly, you can expect average gains of 30% in one year and 120%-170% in three years.

• Before I tell you about this idea, you should understand one thing…

Most people aren't cut out for this type of investing.

As I mentioned, this idea is profitable…simple to understand…and easy to execute.

However, it has a downside. It forces you to go against the crowd.

That’s the reason why, despite its long-term track record of producing big profits, less than 1 in 10,000 people use it.

To follow this strategy, you must be willing to “hold your nose” and buy stocks that look like “dead money” to folks who don’t understand this idea. Stocks that CNBC and other mainstream media outlets have brainwashed the public into hating.

Used correctly, this strategy will make you money. But it may result in moments of uncomfortableness. Folks at a cocktail party may drift away from you when you admit you own these stocks. If your stock broker doesn’t understand this idea, he might think you’ve lost your mind.

If you can’t handle the uncomfortableness, this strategy isn’t for you.

But if you’re OK with all those things, read on. Think of them as the “costs” of making superior returns in the stock market.

• This idea is based on a financial anomaly called “mean reversion”…

If you're not familiar with this term, it simply means that a stock will eventually move back to its average price.

Most investors know stocks don’t go up forever. When the dot-com bubble crashed after spiking an incredible 238% in less than two years, that was mean reversion. When the U.S. stock market crashed in 1929 after the “Roaring 20s” pushed it to crazy heights, that was mean reversion.

But this idea doesn’t require you to short (bet against) anything. Mean reversion works in the other direction, too. Just like stocks can’t rise forever, it’s equally true that they can't fall forever.

Sometimes a stock market gets so cheap…so hated…and drops so far in price…that it’s virtually guaranteed to bounce back strong.

This system identifies those stocks for you. And the data proves, without a doubt, that buying stocks poised to “mean revert” is a very profitable strategy.

• To follow this idea, look for stocks with this rare attribute…

Look for stock markets, industries, and sectors that have declined three years in a row.

Keep in mind, these situations are rare. Three consecutive years of lower prices almost never happens. According to a study by our friend Meb Faber, those instances occurred less than 3% of the time from 1903 to 2007.

Meb's a brilliant researcher and one of the few truly original thinkers in finance.

To test the performance of a “mean reversion” strategy, he studied both whole countries (with an investable stock market) and asset classes (types of investments) to determine if they showed any patterns.

As I mentioned, markets almost never fell three years in a row. But when they did, the following bull market was extremely powerful.

The average return in stocks for whole countries during the fourth year was more than 30%.

That's an incredible result, something that wouldn't happen by chance. This big move higher is caused by reversion to the mean, not chance.

When Meb studied asset classes, he found similar numbers… After three years in a row of falling stock prices, the average return in the fourth year was 34%, almost three times higher than the average return of all the years in the study.

Again, statistical analysis tells us these are significant results, not just chance.

They're proof of mean reversion in stock prices. Buying assets that are down three years in a row is a powerful market strategy.

• And Meb found a way to make the results even better…

Meb also researched the idea that mean reversion would lead to even more powerful stock rallies when the previous destruction of value was the greatest.

He studied countries with stock markets that declined by 80% or more.

On average, these countries saw their indexes rebound by nearly 120% in the three years that followed.

And that's not all…

Meb found the same type of huge rebounds in different industry groups, too.

He studied U.S. industry groups going back to the 1920s.

When a U.S. industry group fell by 80% or more from a peak, the average return three years later was more than 170%.

These statistics are amazing…and proof that investing in depressed markets leads to gigantic returns.

It’s common sense really. When investors get extremely frustrated with an asset class, they abandon it. Prices decline to absurdly cheap levels. And just like the cycle of day and night, extreme bear market turns into extreme bull market.

• To recap…

Remember, this strategy boils down to one simple idea: Look for markets, industry groups, and sectors that have fallen for three years in a row. Buy them. Big average gains will follow.

And to increase your returns even more, look for markets, industry groups, and sectors that have lost 80% or more of their value from a peak. These situations are rare…you won’t find them often. But 104 years of data shows that when they do occur, you can make average gains of 120%-170%.

It’s a wonderfully simple—and profitable—strategy that most investors are too afraid to try. But as you can see, when used correctly, it's a great way to book huge gains.

• This strategy will sound familiar to longtime readers of Doug Casey…

As you may know, Doug wrote New York Times #1 bestseller, Crisis Investing. Many experts consider it to be one of the best investing books of all time. Legendary stock picker Sir John Templeton was known to keep a copy on his bookshelf.

At the core of Crisis Investing is a powerful idea. By investing intelligently in extremely cheap markets and sectors, you can make huge investment returns.

Although Meb’s data wasn’t available to Doug when Doug wrote this book in 1979, it proves that Doug’s strategy not only works…but is one of the most powerful secrets in all of investing.

Using this strategy, Doug has amassed a literal fortune…more wealth than the average person can spend in 20 lifetimes. He once made a 64,000% gain (not a typo) buying into what would become the world’s richest nickel and copper mine. Another time he made 1,000%+ gains investing in a small Alaskan mining business.

That’s why we’re excited to announce, for the first time ever, Doug is revealing the exact secrets behind his strategy during a free online training event.

You can sign up for the four-day event right here. In short, Doug and his team will give attendees “basic training” on how to make money using his highly successful method. And you’ll learn the specific areas of the market with huge upside and limited downside that Doug likes today.

And best of all, you don’t have to have millions of dollars or run a hedge fund to use this strategy. You only need a few thousand dollars and an ordinary brokerage account with a company like E-Trade, TD Ameritrade, or Scottrade.

Again, this training is 100% free. Click here to sign up.


Austrian Economics = Real Economics

Jesus Was Libertarian Not A Liberal


Jesus With Romans

Jesus Was Libertarian not a Liberal

By Delwyn Lounsbury - THE DEFLATION GURU

Jesus was libertarian not a liberal. Libertarian is adherence to small government, freedom and free enterprise. To do no harm or fraud to others - To follow the golden rule - To do unto others as you would have them do unto you.

Libertarians believe in freedom of thought, expression and action along with keeping a military for defense only. They want to keep government small and they even want to contract most of it to the lowest bidder.

In the 2012 US presidential race, Ron Paul (Republican, Texas), was actually the only libertarian thinking candidate. Notably, Ron Paul was the only candidate who knew the difference between military spending and defense spending.

200 years of a big government inflation scheme by an evil cartel of Anglo American financial elite central banking families has pushed the world to the brink of economic turmoil of over 100 years of credit inflation which will now become a credit deflation crash in your Greater Depression. This excess credit inflation, central bank fraudulent fiat monopoly money and fractional reserve banking allowed government to grow into a LEVIATHAN - a bloated behemoth bashing business freedom and liberty and threatening to become an all controlling "Big Brother."

"As government expands - liberty contracts" by Ronald Reagan

Libertarians believe in having a small army and police force for protection not to beat up the rest of the world empire building.

Rome caused its own demise by watering down its money and trying to be policeman of the world. This corrupting its morals and will and brought on Romes collapse at the hands of barbarians. Remarkably, Emperor Constantine kept the gold coin pure when he moved what was left of the Roman Empire to Constantinople (now Istanbul). That helped them last another 500 years until they were finally defeated by the Moors.

Support the constitution! Lobby for private gold back money. Vote for conservative candidates and de-fund big government. Our only defense is to stop the growth of government. Obama the new dictator is trampling our constitution, derailing the economy and eroding freedom and the American Way.

That is what Jesus stood for. Freedom of religion meant not to be required to join a religious sect. Liberty allows people to worship as they wish and not be fed to the lions in Rome's Coliseum. Jesus was libertarian and he gave his life for ideas of freedom and free choice. We should be looking up to his courage in the face of pressure from both Rome and the Jewish Church at the same time.

The Bible has instances where Jesus stood up as a symbol of free will and finally a martyr for that free will.

There was the worker hired late in the day that got the same pay as the rest. He helped get the project done on time - pay him well. Matthew (20)

Jesus was asked if they should pay taxes to Caesar. He says Caesar's face is on the coins. So, "Give to Caesar what is Caesar's, give to God what is God's. Mathew (21:22)

The adulteress. Jesus said who will be the first to throw a stone. No one did. John (7:8)

Jesus tips over the money changers tables saying "My house is a house of prayer, but you are making it a den of robbers." Matthew (21:22) and Mark (11:15)

Love your neighbor as yourself. (Matthew 22:39)

Do unto others as you would have them do to you. (The Golden Rule) (Matthew 7:12)

Oppose both the Democrats and Republicans when they pass increased taxes and more rules and regulations and gravitate toward one world government and the United Nations, NATO, the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, the International Criminal Court and similar globalist facilities and institutions.

Become an active voice at all levels for smaller government and a reduction in taxes. President Obama's plan to grow the power and control of government through huge government controlled unconstitutional ObamaCare (a scheme for rationing, euthanasia and more TAX) is exactly the opposite of what Jesus would have wanted. Government "investments" never pan out and are Marxist!

President Obama and the Democrat's liberal progressive idea of socialism with more big government control and regulation will only result in the taking of your freedom through higher taxes. Socialist Obama is a communist, a Marxist a socialist and is fast becoming a fascist dictator. You should now be having heaps of buyer's remorse about electing someone that wants to hurt American freedom, liberty, and free enterprise and to undermine our Constitution.

It's hard to admit you were led astray. I know. Obama wants to ruin our constitutional values and liberties. He is packing the courts with socialist left leaning judges. He is instigating tax the rich class warfare right out of the communist manifesto. We have got to stop leftist Keynesian socialists in the name of our founding fathers. Obama has got half the world calling communism "fairness," "sustainability," and "citizenship." Right out of the Marxism/communism 101 textbook. George W. Bush had blinders on. All he could think about was to protect America from another 9-11 attack. A war on terrorism, which is a misnomer - it's a war on terrorists. One cannot have a war on an idea. Government got bigger and our liberty shrank with passage of the unconstitutional Patriot Act!

Now, President Barack Hussein Obama keeps claiming the Republicans drove the economy into a ditch. Well then it seems the Democratic Party is out to strip the whole car - I mean economy. Some new grand theft auto meets end freedom forever game. All we had to do was pull the economy out of the ditch. Not part it out and sell it to China. Only once before has a government official got this intrusive and destructive. That occurred when fascist President Franklin Delano Roosevelt was office. The New Deal was the start of the sorry socialism we have today. Today unemployment leads to more unemployment in a vicious cycle like a snowball rolling down a hill. The world is in a deflation economy and Greater Depression. The depression started 2000 with the dot com stock top and bust and may not end until 2016-2018. At that time asset prices may be down 90 percent and unemployment may be 50 percent.

See my site http://www.deflationeconomy.com to see how to survive and get rich in the coming Greater Deflationary Depression.

President Barack Hussein Obama, "The Downgrade President," will be happy to know that he is only the second most destructive political figure in American history after FDR.

A new book out by Dinesh D'Souza, “The Roots of Obama's Rage” (2010), and his 2012 movie, "2016 - Obama's America," claim President Barack Hussein Obama Junior's father, Barack Hussein Obama, Senior was an alcoholic socialist communist and anticolonialist from Kenya Africa. Obama Senior wanted Europe and the West to pay for taking advantage of the third world and taking natural resources. Obama Junior's self-written autobiography is titled "Dreams from My Father." So, anticolonialist, socialist and Marxist Barack Obama Jr. absolutely wants to weaken the U.S. Don't try and tell me something different. Junior’s anticolonialist father’s dreams are becoming our nightmare.

All the quantitative easing by the Fed (QE1 of 1.2 billion dollars) and (QE2 of 600 million dollars) thrown at our economic problem will evaporate. Lower taxes letting business grow and hire would help but not stop the deflation. You cannot stop a pendulum from completing its swing. The elite have most of their money in American dollars. They don't want to ruin the value of their dollar holdings. The dollar will be strong. We are in deflation and the Greater Depression. Inflation is not coming back soon!

Read, “The Creature from Jekyll Island” 1994, by G. Edward Griffin. It is about how the Zionist Anglo American financial power elite (Banksters I call them) secretly hatched the Federal Reserve Bank plan in 1913 to do in America. The plan was to bring the once strong and powerful America down by ruining both its money and its morals. Both political parties are in on this new-world-order/one-world-government conspiracy, by the way. Chapter 2 of Griffin's book is "Bailouts - Name of the Game". 1994! The book also predicted how the one-world-government bunch would use wars, climate change and economic calamity as a smokescreen for taking your freedom and liberty. You and I have been duped by the mega rich elite central banking families. I am a card carrying Libertarian. I am for small government and freedom but have a small army for defense. Again, do no harm or fraud.

Jesus was a libertarian. He was not for making Rome bigger and more controlling like today's progressive leftists want. Maybe you should join the cause of free enterprise and private gold backed money. Big government is a leech sucking all the vitality out of the economy. Depression dead ahead!

Do you want someone telling you and your children and your children's children what to do, where to work and what to think? Wouldn't it be better to stop the power elite from becoming "Big Brother." Work at making government smaller and less intrusive.

Before Roosevelt took office government was only 9% of the economy. Now, it's one third. It's a big cancer that politicians thought they could pay for with inflation, financial repression and fiat money. Until now! Cash will be king in deflation and the depression that may not end until 2016-2018.

Obama got the Nobel Peace prize and the one million dollars that comes with it in his first few months in office. Why? He had not done a thing yet. Here's a $ 1 million. Now, go beat up America, the constitution and American business until they just freeze up and give up trying. Then let new-world-order/one-world-government groups like the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, the United Nations and cap-and-trade organizations take over. Obama got paid up front by the elite for one-world-government wet work he would do later in his term. Obama's policies will only make the pendulum swing further to deflation and delay a recovery. Do the world a favor and go Libertarian or Independent. Obama's latest Nazi fascist policies include: Ignoring two U.S. Judges who ruled that ObamaCare is unconstitutional, forging his birth certificate, ruling DOMA - Defense of Marriage Act unconstitutional by not abiding by the War Powers Act in the military action in Libya, the murder martyr of Osama bin Laden (the last time I looked "Thou shalt not kill" was still one of the 10 Commandments) and now hiring a leftist media czar, Jesse Lee, on the taxpayers dime to spin-doctor any adverse media coverage leading up to the 2012 presidential election.

Let's make sure money is privately controlled and backed by gold or we get a nasty hyperinflation (after 2018). Keep government and central banks away from fiat money creation. They are the modern day money changers. No wonder Jesus was libertarian.

Copyright by Delwyn Lounsbury - THE DEFLATION GURU Use of this article allowed with attribution back to: http://www.deflationeconomy.com/jesus-was-libertarian.html

Join Club EWI and get your FREE "Understanding Deflation" downloads - How to survive and get rich in the coming Greater Depression - CLICK ABOVE LINKS NOW! HURRY THE CRASH IS COMING!

*****

I am an Eagle Scout who is loyal, truthful, honest and trustworthy to you. “Be Prepared” is the Boy Scout motto. Isn't it?

You can learn more about the planned Hitler-like one-world government SOCIALIST dictatorship - a 100 year old insidious takeover plot by inter-generational central banking elite - at my new site http://www.one-world-government.org Hurry your and the worlds survival is at risk!


Jesus With Rifle

This man Joseph Sheridan wrote a book "Jesus Was A Liberal"  444 pages! -  What has politics got to to with faith in God.  He never answered back when I wrote him back that I thought Jesus was libertarian not a liberal and when he learned I was not a Republican.

Because - no way was Jesus or any of his followers in favor of a larger and more controlling Roman government or all the Jewish money changers whose tables he overturned twice.  That is my point.  That is the problem today.  We have a top heavy government that private enterprise can no longer support at these extreme levels of taxation.  Fearful businesses are freezing up and giving up.

All World Governments have been living on inflation for all these years.  Spending more than they brought in thinking they could pay back what they borrowed with inflated dollars and their own currencies watered down and worth less and less every year.  Real estate didn't go up in price.  The value of the money went down.  Now with disinflation that is stopped cold.  It's reversing and turning into deflation and the Greater Depression.  Robert Prechter says he now sees a 7.25 year cycle in America.  Meaning the stock market may peak here this Fall and drift lower.  Then the big drop and the time people finally realize the Greater Depression is real will be 2012 with a bottom in 2016 - 2018.  Most assets will have lost 90% of value by then and unemployment will be 30%.  Then the rich will buy back all those assets.  Cash is King in a deflation.

Even the supreme court ruled last month that Obamacare was a tax.  Taxes are actually disguised inflation. 

The deflation economy is too powerful.  No matter how much money the government tries to throw at the problem, deflation just wipes out trillions more.  Helicopter Ben Bernake is now planning QE2 (Quantitative Easing 2).  This will be monetarist stimulus of outright purchases of government bonds to the tune of $75 billion a month totaling six hundred billion dollar on top of the $1.2 billion from QE1/  Interest rates are at zero.  So, this is one of the last arrows in the Fed's quiver to try and stall the deflation.
 
5 year TIPS, (Treasury Inflation Protected Securities) actually sold 10/25/2010 at a negate .55% return rate.  How crazy is that?   Why even buy inflation protection when it is deflation protection that is needed?  Everyone still thinks inflation will come roaring back.  It will not.  Not for year anyway.

Jesus was  Libertarian. Not a big bullying bastardized bureaucracy.

-----Original Message-----

From: Joseph Sheridan <jasltd1@sbcglobal.net>

To: DelwynLounsbury@aol.com

Sent: Sun, Oct 17, 2010 9:46 pm

Subject: Re: Why In The World Is President Obama Bankrupting America?


Sir: You have it wrong. The Republican Party since Reagan's presidency have placed our economic condition in jeopardy. Reagan came into office with a debt accumulated by the previous 39 presidents of $900 billion.
 
As a candidate, Reagan promised he would rid the nation of this debt within the first term of his presidency. I am sure that was his intent, however, it was a promise he could not fulfill. After eight years in the Oval Office, Reagan left his successor, George H. W. Bush a debt to-tallying $2.7 trillion. Bush left office four years later and he also left a debt of an additional $1 plus trillion. Then the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq which were not budgeted and, indeed, were off balance sheet conflicts costing the American tax payer trillions more. These figures do not include the trillion his administration's failure to manage the brokerage houses, the banks. the insurance giants--which all together came very close to destroying our entire economy.
 
When Bush left office while all the bills for the wars in which he engaged this nation had not been calculated and so much of the costs were involved in fraud, bribery and the like, our debt was at a minimum over$10 trillion. The financial crisis caused by his, his father's and the Reagan administrations' failure to perform their constitutional obligation of oversight, forced the government prior to Bush's departure to invest $800 billion in our "too big to fail' banks, our giant brokerage houses and massively indebted insurance companies paying absurd prices with their policy holders' money on real estate agreements not worth the paper on which they were written!
 
You sir, are a liar when you blame Obama for the ineptitude of the Republicans who were in the White House and for a majority of this time in control of Congress.  Either that or you are just plain ignorant!
 
This is the most important election in modern times and to put back into office the brainless crowd that nearly bankrupted the country from 2001-2009 is the essence of insanity!
 
 
JOSEPH A. SHERIDAN

President and Publisher

J. A. Sheridan, Ltd.
WEB SITE---theliberalperspective.com

AUTHOR: JESUS WAS A LIBERAL/A blogger's Bold Opinion on Politics and Religion

E-MAIL--joesheridan@theliberalperspective.com


----------------------------------------------------------------
My Reply

From: "DelwynLounsbury@aol.com" <DelwynLounsbury@aol.com>
To:jasltd1@sbcglobal.net
Sent: Sat, October 16, 2010 6:38:11 PM
Subject: Re: Why In The World Is President Obama Bankrupting America?


Concentrating on helping business grow in a free market would have been much better.  As government debt has grown 20% to. Individuals have paid down 10% of there debt. Meaning taxpayers are saddled with more debt that may never be paid down.  Socialism never works.  Bigger government through Obama still is a loss of freedom.  He is definitely heading us toward one-world government.  People are told what to do and what to think. Tyranny. This is a 100 year conspiracy. Obama inherited problem.  Yes. But, his bunch growing government can only lead to a fascist state. The Long Cycle is going to happen anyway.  30% unemployment still coming.  Mark my words.

Copyright 2010 by Delwyn Lounsbury  -  THE DEFLATION GURU
Rights to use this article are allowed with attribution back to"
http://www.deflationeconomy.com
 
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++Original Message

 
In a message dated 10/16/2010 11:39:23 A.M. Pacific Daylight Time, jasltd1@sbcglobal.net writes:

You, Sir, have hit the proverbial squarely the thumb! When Obama inherited the mess left by George W. our debt had increased to at least $10 trillion.

Obama was forced to rescue the economy from falling into bankruptcy by pouring large sums of money to save us. Had he not, unemployment would have reached 25%, major corporations would be gone under and banks worldwide would have fallen into a deep red ocean of ink.

You are not an economist. You, Sir, are a propagandist!



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This site may contain copyrighted material the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner.. www.deflationeconomy.com (“the site”) is making such material available in an effort to further understanding of political, social, economic, and scientific issues, etc. The site asserts this constitutes a ‘fair use’ of any such copyrighted material as provided for in section 107 of the US Copyright Law.In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes. For more information go to: http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/17/107.shtmlIf you wish to use copyrighted material from this site for purposes of your own that go beyond ‘fair use’, you must obtain permission from the copyright owner.

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*****

(PROOF OBAMA WAS BORN IN KENYA, AFRICA)

Note* Barack Hussein Obama never wrote the book advertised here in a 1991 publishers promotional pamphlet put out by his literary agency, Acton & Dystel, of a coming Obama book for sale, "Images in Black and White."

Instead, Obama wrote (some say communist Bill Ayers actually wrote) "Dreams from My Father" an autobiography with a socialist slant depicting his communist father as an anticolonialist blaming the west for all the world's ills.

That is where lawless Obama's rogue renegade radical leftist transforming change ideas came from. Obama's upbringing came from communist family members (father and both grandparents on his mothers side), socialist mother and friends. In fact, Obama's mentor and tutor. Frank Marshal Davis, was on the FBI communist watch list - member of Communist Party USA (CPUSA) card number 47544. Then came Marxist groups in college and finally socialist groups like the New Party in Chicago where he was a community organizer (communizer).

See actual brochure from his publicist stating Barack Hussein Obama was born in Kenya, Africa - above.

His "Hope and Change" campaign slogan has morphed into WE HOPE HE CHANGES. Narcissist Obama showed himself to be an ideologue and a fascist dictator puppet and mole for the criminal Anglo American financial power elite international central banking families. This criminal cabal run by the Zioniist Rothschild and Rockefeller family cabal cartel control all the central (sovereign) banks of the world and wants one world government/new world order aka new underworld order control goal of global socialist fascist dictatorship at any cost or means.

Deflation in the Greater Depression, which actually began with the year 2000 dot com bust, along with the plight of most American citizens worsened under his statist agenda. Obama's legacy will be trillions of wasted stimulus spending, grotesque government growth and over 1,000 dictatorial executive orders - many unconstitutional - most illegal - all  socialist and/or communist.

Working for his elite Rothschild handlers, Obama has led us to the brink of economic collapse and planned coup by Zionist bankster oligarchs who already control both political parties in America..

A phony Iran, Syrian and Ukrainian war leading to a phony World War Three threatening the very survival of mankind is next if we don't stop the insanity. Watch out for false flag nuclear explosions in the Ukraine and Iran.

The American, NATO and Israel elite scheme is to get the people so confused and demoralized that they can abscond with the last of the world's middle classes power, freedom and money in the coming Greatest Depression.

THINK:   BIG BROTHER AND THE MAFIA JOIN UP!

The BANKSTER elite want a fascist socialist one world government dictatorship.

It's all about control of you and I. Pure Tyranny!