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Nikolai Kondratiev - Economist
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KONDRATIEV WAVEKondratiev Wave Theory Deflation and the Greater Depression By Delwyn Lounsbury - THE DEFLATION GURU Kondratiev or Kondratieff wave theory is not well known, however, knowledge about it is important to your and the world's surival in the coming deflation and Greater Depression. A Russian man named Nikolai Dmyitriyevich Kondratiev (Kondratieff) 1892 - 1938, came up with the Kondratiev wave theory about the 50 to 80 year-long wave cycle that capitalistic economies experience. Kondratiev wave theory includes: A spring (inflation), a summer (stagflation), a fall (deflation or disinflation) and then a winter (hyperdeflation and depression). According to the Kondratiev wave theory cycles similar to seasons in nature cause the capitalist economy to be born again and rise up from a higher plateau than when your whole economic cycle started out. That positive outlook toward capitalism did not sit well with Russian communist leader Joseph Stalin. Nikolai Kondratiev (Kondratieff) was arrested in 1930 and sent to the Gulag (prison in Siberia). Then in 1938, Stalin had poor Nikolai shot by firing squad on trumped-up charges. Today, few people believe that inflation will ease and go away. Most economists are in denial that we have been in a deflationary economy leading into the GREATER DEPRESSION since the year 2000 dot com stock market bubble climax top. Robert Prechter of Elliott Wave International says since stock markets are such a great compilation of human business endeavor it is best to look at major averages long term charts to see the real trend. Kondratiev wave theory points to previous long-term tops that were all evidenced by a major war and economic tops in the stock markets as follows: 1. The War of 1812, "To save the American way of life," led to the "Era of Good Feelings." 2. The Civil War, "To make all men free" led to the "Reconstruction." 3. World War I, "to make the world safe for democracy," with the Roaring 20's top and Great Depression bottom. The Federal Reserve Bank was hatched 1913 in a secret meeting on Jekyll Island off the coast of Georgia by financial elitist bankers (banksters) and passed in congress on a late Christmas eve vote when most of the members had already gone home for the holiday. 4. The current Kondratiev wave should stretch from World War II through the Vietnam War and end in the Greater Depression bottom in 2016 - 2020 or so. Remarkably, World War II, the Korean War, the Vietnam War and the gulf wars have not had their depression that usually comes after a wasteful war. The federal government with the help of the Federal Reserve just kept papering over the problem with bigger and bigger borrowing, spending, bailouts and stimulus. Credit inflation never works out and always ends in a credit deflation bust. DON'T FOR GET CASH IS KING IN A DEFLATIONARY CRASH! Franklin Roosevelt’s (a socialist fascist who delayed the recovery from the depression with misguided solutions) New Deal to Lyndon Johnson’s - "Great Society" was a period that led the world into Keynesian socialism and runaway inflation. Aided by the US Federal Reserve Bank, a fraudulent monopoly cartel, the Anglo financial power elite furthered their plan to subjugate people under a one world government. They want a global governance where you are told what to do, where to live, where to work and what to think. This totalitarian "Big Brother" state may even result in a feudal NEW DARK AGES with a ruling class and slaves and underlings to do their bidding. Under Keynesian socialism government (the parasite) eventually gets so big the world economy collapses from the sucking the life and will out of people and business burdened by higher and higher taxation. Like now! Every darned time. Our Greater Depression (the winter or deflation/depression Kondratiev wave phase) started in 2000 with the dot com stock bubble top! Most assets will drop 90% (Dow to go to 400 per Robert Prechter) and 35 percent plus unemployment dead ahead. Gold may even drop in half per Prechter. The depression lasted 10 years after the Civil War and subsequent Reconstruction. The most severe depression, so far, was the 1930's great depression. The Greater Depression will be three times larger and three times longer than that one due to Elliott wave principle progression larger and larger degrees of cycle scale. A long wave peak like we had in 2000 is an emotional top of positive mood. Deflation after the top then looks like prosperity because things calm down and the economy is somewhat stable with low inflation. Negative mood then grows according to Robert Prechter, who has written extensively about this in his several books about socionomics. Socionomics is a study of waxing and waning mood swings of society in general due to the fact that man is a herd animal. Robert Prechter is on record saying world war three started with the 9/11 World Trade Towers attack, the Dow will drop below 1,000 around 2016, real estate will drop 90 per cent, unemployment will be over 30 per cent, gold will drop and the dollar will be strong. "Cash will be King" in the coming Kondratiev wave winter according to Robert Prechter, Author of the book "Conquer the Crash (2002 updated). There is actually a downward deflationary self-reinforcing spiral, which will last until the end of the depression. With interest rates declining on balance in the post top period, each new business joining the competition gets the advantage over his predecessors of lower cost of money and new technology. So, he can lower prices. Overhead is fixed. Profits are under pressure. Business has to lower costs by laying off workers. Those left on the payroll are more productive. This is where we are going now. Those left at the job are doing extra work. Aren't they? All the excess credit has to be wrung out of the economy. Next, the "multiplier effect" in economics in reverse comes into play. Those laid off can't afford to buy as much then businesses have to lay off more - and so on - in a snowballing vicious circle. This is the world’s future until things stabilize in year 2016-2018 or so. We need private gold backed money or we will repeat the whole insane inflation again. Only gold is honest. Only gold is not someone else's debt. Lobby for a private gold based money! Do not let government control money. My college professor in Economics 101 was explaining the "multiplier effect." Each year, he said, 3 per cent more children are born and then when they graduate they get jobs in the workforce. The total economy grows at that multiple each consecutive year afterward. I raised my hand and asked, "What if that multiplier effect goes in reverse?" He told me not to worry. The government would not let that happen. That was in 1968. I have been wondering every since when he would be proven wrong. This Kondratiev winter (Greater Depression) will be a big needed cleansing through de funding the bloated big government and excess credit inflation we have today. Hopefully we will emerge from it with more freedom and our liberty intact. This is your watch now. Stop the Federal Reserve Bank a fraudulent monopoly cartel, stop the federal government and Obama from borrowing and spending like a drunken sailor and the stop the Anglo financial power elite "Big Brother" one-world-government/new-world-order conspiracy. IT'S TYRANNY! Lobby for and subscribe to a new private money backed by gold or runaway inflation will rear its ugly head again as sure as the sun rises. The next Kondratiev wave cycle in (2020 - 2120?) if virulent enough, could end in a crash leading to a new dark ages unless gold (which is the only money that is not someone else's debt) is the basis for the money worldwide. How long will the next Kondratiev cycle be? I won't be around. But: apparently all nature is ruled by Fibonnaci and fractals - clear down to subatomic level with .618 being the golden (sextant) number. Robert Prechter says atom particles bouncing in a chamber after being zapped with a linear accelerator look like curled ferns which if you do the math is a Fibonnaci sequence. Prechter's book on socionomics has that along with the herd animal thing, the waxing and waning of society in total, the growth of wave structure directly tied to above and Elliott wave with each cycle being larger at scale. We will have to see how well mankind survives the current cycle. So, in my mind the next spring, summer, fall and winter Kondratiev wave will most likely be some 100 to 120 years in duration. What do you think? That is until a total world breakdown/new dark ages. Possible causes: No more fossil fuel from dead dinosaurs or a nuclear wipe-out or the soil gives up giving food or technology tops out or the ascension happens or most likely the elite succeed in their plan to depopulate the world so that the natural resouces last longer in their playground in the NEW DARK AGES - A type of Roman flame out that resets the Kondratiev wave and the world's time clock. Don't let the powers-that-be collectivist conspiracy plan for a new world order turn into the NEW DARK AGES! The truth spread by "Internet Reformation" is shedding light on one-worldism just like the Gutenberg printing press 500 years ago printed Bibles and books in the common man's language which brought about the reformation and renaisance. If you ask me, only a private money backed by gold will save us. The trouble with the Kondratiev wave is that just as society gets research and innovation ramped up all of a sudden there is no venture capital to fund the new ideas into actual widespread use. Every time! "As government expands - liberty contracts," Ronald Reagan Copyright 2010 By Delwyn Lounsbury - THE DEFLATION GURU Reprint rights and use allowed with attribution back to: http://www.deflationeconomy.com
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