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Robert Prechter: Are We Set Up for a Perfect Storm?
ROBERT PRECHTER
Robert Prechter on Deflation and the Greater Depression
By Delwyn Lounsbury - THE DEFLATION GURU
Robert Prechter Jr (1949), american author and market analyst. His financial forecasts use the Elliott Wave Principle, Fibonacci, fractal analysis and socionomics. Socionomics is Prechter's new fascinating combination of sociology and economics.
Robert Prechter has written several books on socionomics, a theory about human and social behavior. Socionomics describes man as a herd animal reacting to societies general mood swings from positive to negative (a waxing and waning) and back at all degrees of scale and time. Not the way to invest, according to Robert Prechter. Following markets like a lemming. Better to be a contrarian.
Robert Prechter has an uncanny ability to be on the right side of a market move because he looks at everything in society from a socionomic point of view. Socionomics says man is a herd animal and reacts in waxing and waning - positive and negative emotional states. This waxing and waning also leads to ups and downs in investment markets. Booms and depressions at degrees of scale follow these mood swings. See also - Robert Prechter's Elliott Wave Principle book (1978). We have articles on these subjects. He is predicting a Greater Depression and World War three.
Robert Prechter attended Yale University on a full scholarship and graduated in 1971 with a degree in psychology. He began his career as a Technical Market Specialist with the Merrill Lynch Market Analysis Department in New York.
In 1978, Robert Prechter and A. J. Frost, C.F.A., together wrote the “ELLIOTT WAVE PRINCIPLE - KEY TO MARKET BEHAVIOR.”
In 1984 Mr. Prechter set an all time record in the United States Trading Championship by returning 444.4% in a monitored real-money options account over a 4 month time period. In December of 1989, Financial News Network named him "Guru of the Decade."
Prechter is the epitome of a contrarian. In 1982 he said to get stocks for the last hurrah of the economic GRAND SUPER CYCLE. No one believed him. In 1995 he wrote, “AT THE CREST OF THE TIDAL WAVE.” The book warned about the coming stock climax top leading to subsequent deflation to be followed by a large depression. Again Prechter was spot on the money even if a little early. Stocks peaked in 2000.
He has authored or edited 14 books, including “CONQUER THE CRASH” (2002), a New York Times best seller. He publishes daily and monthly financial commentary backed up by a staff of over 40 people.
Robert Prechter says the deflation economics cycle started with the 2000 dot com stock mania bubble climax peak. It may not bottom until 2016 to 2018. At that time most of your assets may have lost 90% in price and unemployment could be 30%. Even the price of gold may drop in half. CASH IS KING in deflation. Japan has seen deflation for 20 years and now the rest of the world is catching the epidemic. You cannot stop the pendulum from swinging. Deflation economics will continue until the inflation is wrung out of the system in this Greater Depression which Robert Prechter says will not end until 2016. He also says most asset prices will have dropped 90 percent and the U.S. dollar will be in a bull market until then. The advice of Robert Prechter is important to your and the world's survival
Copyright 2010 by Delwyn Lounsbury – THE DEFLATION GURU
Use of this article allowed with attribution back to:
http://www.deflationeconomy.com
ELLIOTT WAVE INTERNATIONAL is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.
Robert Prechter, Chartered Market Technician, is the founder and CEO of Elliott Wave International, author of Wall Street best sellers "Conquer the Crash" and "Elliott Wave Principle" and editor of "The Elliott Wave Theorist" monthly market letter since 1979.
Robert Prechter and his Elliott Wave International (the world's largest independent financial reporting service) began warning about the consequences of too much credit in the economy and the housing markets in the early 1990's. They kept subscribers well ahead of the 2000 dot com mania bubble top and the housing market debacle that started in 2006 (which still inflicts ruinous consequences both on those who purchased homes and on the U.S. economy). With a staff of 50 they continue to stay ahead of the economy and the financial markets. You can stay ahead, too, by starting a FREE Club EWI membership plus get your FREE 90 page "Deflation Guidebook" at:
Robert Prechter can explain the basics of deflation leading to the coming Greater Depression better than anyone I know.
The following is from Robert Prechter's - 90 page "What Is Deflation?" eBook - available for FREE DOWNLOAD when you join Club EWI by clicking the links provided. Click now! You will not be sorry.
The Primary Precondition of Deflation
Deflation requires a precondition: a major societal buildup in the extension of credit. Bank credit and Elliott wave expert Hamilton Bolton, in a 1957 letter, summarized his observations this way: “In reading a history of major depressions in the U.S. from 1830 on, I was impressed with the following: (a) All were set off by a deflation of excess credit. This was the one factor in common.”
“The Fed Will Stop Deflation”
I am tired of hearing people insist that the Fed can expand credit all it wants. Sometimes an analogy clarifies a subject, so let’s try one.
It may sound crazy, but suppose the government were to decide that the health of the nation depends upon producing Jaguar automobiles and providing them to as many people as possible. To facilitate that goal, it begins operating Jaguar plants all over the country, subsidizing production with tax money. To everyone’s delight, it offers these luxury cars for sale at 50 percent off the old price. People flock to the showrooms and buy. Later, sales slow down, so the government cuts the price in half again. More people rush in and buy. Sales again slow, so it lowers the price to $900 each. People return to the stores to buy two or three, or half a dozen. Why not? Look how cheap they are! Buyers give Jaguars to their kids and park an extra one on the lawn.
Finally, the country is awash in Jaguars. Alas, sales slow again, and the government panics. It must move more Jaguars, or, according to its theory — ironically now made fact — the economy will recede. People are working three days a week just to pay their taxes so the government can keep producing more Jaguars. If Jaguars stop moving, the economy will stop. So the government begins giving Jaguars away. A few more cars move out of the showrooms, but then it ends. Nobody wants any more Jaguars. They don’t care if they’re free. They can’t find a use for them. Production of Jaguars ceases. It takes years to work through the overhanging supply of Jaguars. Tax collections collapse, the factories close, and unemployment soars. The economy is wrecked. People can’t afford to buy gasoline, so many of the Jaguars rust away to worthlessness. The number of Jaguars — at best — returns to the level it was before the program began.
The same thing can happen with credit.
It may sound crazy, but suppose the government were to decide that the health of the nation depends upon producing credit and providing it to as many people as possible. To facilitate that goal, it begins operating credit-production plants all over the country, called Federal Reserve Banks. To everyone’s delight, these banks offer the credit for sale at below market rates. People flock to the banks and buy. Later, sales slow down, so the banks cut the price again. More people rush in and buy. Sales again slow, so they lower the price to one percent. People return to the banks to buy even more credit. Why not? Look how cheap it is! Borrowers use credit to buy houses, boats and an extra Jaguar to park out on the lawn. Finally, the country is awash in credit. Alas, sales slow again, and the banks panic. They must move more credit, or, according to its theory — ironically now made fact — the economy will recede. \
People are working three days a week just to pay the interest on their debt to the banks so the banks can keep offering more credit. If credit stops moving, the economy will stop. So the banks begin giving credit away, at zero percent interest. A few more loans move through the tellers’ windows, but then it ends. Nobody wants any more credit. They don’t care if it’s free. They can’t find a use for it. Production of credit ceases. It takes years to work through the overhanging supply of credit. Interest payments collapse, banks close, and unemployment soars. The economy is wrecked. People can’t afford to pay interest on their debts, so many bonds deteriorate to worthlessness. The value of credit — at best — returns to the level it was before the program began.
Jaguars, anyone?
Get FREE DOWNLOAD. of 90 page, What is Delfation?, by Robert Prechter.
ROBERT PRECHTER
We are firm believers in Robert Prechter's Elliott Wave analysis. How markets and indeed all nature are related to Ralph Nelson Elliott's wave theory of markets, fibonacci and fractals. Socionomics is Robert Prechter's new joining of sociology and economics in relation to mankinds mood swings from positive to negative and someday back to positive and the effect that will have on the markets. Both of these studies are catching on worldwide. To fully understand, you need to subscribe to Mr. Prechter's publications. ASAP! There are free videos, reports, a FREE 90 page download, What Is Deflation?, and tutorials if you join Club EWI (Elliott Wave International). Hurry! The crash is coming. You have to be prepared before it happens.
I would, however, suggest you get a paid subscription. He has a staff of 50 to track the markets and publish up to date forecasting. Hurry and subscribe! The crash has already started and it is only going to get worse. Get a free copy of Robert Prechter's amazing book - "CONQUER THE CRASH" - with your paid subscription to his monthly Financial Forecast newsletter.
Get your REE DOWNLOAD - Robert Prechter's 90 Page "Deflation Guidebook". Click on Banner on this page! To get any of the freebies you do have to join Club EWI (Elliott Wave International). It's FREE! You get a tutorial about the Elliott Wave Principle. How great is that! Free fibonacci fractal financial forecasting for you. Do it NOW!
Robert Prechter
Robert Prechter Biography
Robert Prechter was born in 1949. He attended Yale University on a full scholarship and received a B.A. in psychology in 1971. After graduation, Bob played popular music for four years while studying technical analysis. In 1973-74, his band recorded an album, now on CD. In 1975, Prechter began his financial career by joining Merrill Lynch’s Market Analysis Department under the tutelage of Robert J. Farrell and in 1976 began issuing Elliott-wave analysis of the financial markets. In 1979, Prechter founded Elliott Wave International and began publishing monthly market analysis under the masthead, The Elliott Wave Theorist. Prechter served as a member of the board of the Market Technicians Association for nine years and as the MTA’s President in 1990-1991. He currently serves on the advisory board of the MTA’s Educational Foundation. Over the years, Prechter expanded his business and now employs a staff of analysts who apply the Wave Principle to all major markets around the world. Prechter recently created the Socionomics Institute, which is dedicated to explaining socionomics, and he funds the Socionomics Foundation, which supports academic research in the field. His book Elliott Wave Principle has been translated into a dozen languages, and Conquer the Crash was a New York Times bestseller. Prechter has made many speeches and media appearances around the world. In 2008 and 2010, the Georgia legislature invited Prechter to testify before its Joint Economic Committee regarding the state’s developing real estate and economic crises. In 2009, EWI’s book-publishing division, New Classics Library, published Lewis Little’s The Theory of Elementary Waves, which postulates a purely physical, and thus rational, theory of sub-atomic physics. Bob is a member of the Shakespeare Oxford Society, the Shakespeare Fellowship and the Triple Nine Society.
Get, FREE DOWNLOAD of 90 page Understanding Deflation by Robert Prechter.
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