Editor’s Note: This is one of the most important essays you’ll read all year. In this special edition of the Casey Daily Dispatch, E.B. Tucker shares an urgent warning you’re unlikely to hear anywhere else.
There’s a very important warning signal flashing in the financial market right now.
Despite the importance of this signal, few people know about it…even fewer are talking about it.
Don’t be one of the people who don’t understand the vital importance of the bond market and what it’s telling you right now.
This knowledge could help you avoid a huge hit to your net worth over the next 12-24 months. Here’s why…
Most investors focus on just one area of the investment market: Stocks. After all, stocks have a long track record of generating solid, long-term returns. Plus, the idea of owning shares in a small business that grows large - and making 500% along the way - can capture almost anyone’s attention.
But what most people don’t realize is that the bond market is far more important and far larger than the stock market. The bond market is where companies, countries, and individuals go to borrow money. For every $1 worth of stock outstanding, there’s $2 worth of bonds.
Take the U.S. for example. The total value of every traded stock is $23 trillion. That’s a huge number, but it’s around half the value of all the U.S. bonds outstanding. Between corporate bonds, treasury bonds, mortgage bonds, and other varieties, there’s $40 trillion worth of bonds outstanding in the U.S.
Stock investors share in a company’s future profits. They’re optimistic by nature.
Bond investors are pessimists. They only get a promised rate of interest. That rate is usually fixed, so the bond investor doesn’t care about the promise of big profits. While stock investors daydream about the future, bond investors study the borrowing entity’s ability to repay.
It’s this great focus that makes bonds the ultimate canary in the financial coalmine. The bond market spots trouble long before the stock market wakes up to find it’s already here.
There are two types of corporate bonds: Investment grade and junk. Investment grade bonds are issued by the most financially sound companies. Junk bonds are issued by companies with weak financial positions. They are riskier than investment grade bonds.
Sometimes, things work out and investors realize larger gains by owning junk bonds. But when the economy slows down, these companies feel the pain. They don’t always come through with repayment. This makes junk bonds very sensitive to what is happening in the economy. They often flash warning signs before other assets.
The vital thing to watch in the junk bond market is the amount of interest these bonds yield over the amount of interest risk-free government bonds yield. This is called the “spread.”
For example, if government bonds are yielding 2% annually and junk bonds are yielding 5% annually, the “spread” is said to be 3%. If the yield on junk bonds was to rise to 7%, we would say the spread over Treasuries is 5%.
The spread is vitally important to watch because it shows you what bond investors think about the future. If the spread is declining, it means bond investors aren’t worried. They aren’t asking a lot more in interest above what they could earn in government bonds.
If the spread is rising, it means bond investors are asking for more and more interest to compensate them for making riskier loans. It means they are growing more concerned about the ability of borrowers to repay them.
During good times, this spread is low. Risky investments only pay 2-3% more than U.S. Treasuries. As long as good times persist, that’s enough compensation for greater risk. During bad times, the spread expands to 5%...10%...even more than 15% occasionally.
The spread indicator flashed a major warning sign back in 2007. The spread started widening before the stock market started heading south. Something spooked junk bond investors in June of 2007. Stocks took a hit, too, but recovered. They finished 2007 higher than where they started. Meanwhile, the junk bond spread was widening all year. Bond investors knew trouble was coming.
If junk bonds are the canary in the coalmine, that bird died in late June of 2007. Investors who noticed and took action saved 50% by sitting out the market crash. Most people, even professional investors, completely ignored the signal. They continued chasing profits right off a cliff.
You can see it happen in the chart below. The blue line tracks the S&P 500. The black line measures the spread between junk bonds and U.S. Treasury bonds. Focus on the year 2007. You’ll see the black line start heading down (which means the spread was widening) while stocks finished the year just fine.
Thanks to the Federal Reserve’s massive E-Z-Credit program, the economy recovered from the 2008/2009 crisis, and junk bond values recovered with it. But since the crisis, the Fed has kept interest rates at essentially zero.
This has encouraged an incredible amount of corporate borrowing…much of it has been reckless. Money is being loaned to companies that won’t survive the next recession. Junk bond issuance was up 130% higher last year than it was in 2007.
But recent price action in the junk bond market says the party is over… and it’s time to get cautious. If you look back at the chart above, you see the junk bond market sent the exact same telling signal in December of 2014. Just like in the months leading up to the September 2008 crash, nobody seems to notice. The junk bond market is making it clear trouble is right around the corner.
It is signaling that we could be in for another economic downturn, or worse, a crash. Meanwhile, stocks are still near their highs.
Junk bond spreads are widening and junk bond prices are falling. This means the bond market is not confirming the stock market rally. Bonds are saying, “Don’t trust the stock rally.”
If you have a lot of your wealth tied up in stocks and bonds, I urge you to pay attention to this warning. The bond market is far larger and far more important than the stock market. And right now, the most sensitive part of the bond market is falling while stocks are rising.
With this in mind, consider moving to a very conservative financial position, which means holding plenty of cash and avoiding speculative stocks and junk bonds.
Make sure to own some gold as financial disaster insurance. And continue paying attention to what bonds are saying about the health of corporate America. I expect it will continue to say, “The boom times are over.”
I also urge you to watch a special video we’ve recently released. It explains other critical steps you should take immediately to protect yourself from the next financial crisis. Click here to start watching now.
Dispatch: U.S. On the Precipice of Deflation
Weakest economic recovery in seven decades gets weaker
By Elliott Wave International
Most people extrapolate present trends into the future. But yesterday's trend can look like day vs. night when tomorrow arrives.
Almost no one expected deflation when the December 2007 Elliott Wave Theorist said:
Inflation has raged, but deflation is next.
What followed was the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression and the weakest economic recovery since World War II.
The American economy remains weak. Growth is at the lowest level in more than three decades. ... Wages have been rising at the slowest pace since the 1980s. ... This is the weakest recovery since World War II ... . (U.S. News & World Report, August 23)
A co-founder of AOL and the chairman of Quicken Loans just graded the U.S. economy: They scored its performance near the bottom of the class.
Grading the U.S. economy, the rosiest scores from two billionaires on [October 23] would average about 68, equal to a D+ on a report card. (CNBC, October 23)
Deflationary pressures are increasingly evident.
U.S. consumer prices fell 0.1% in August. Producer prices have been even weaker. The nation's PPI fell 2.9% in August, and it's declined every month since December 2014.
These charts are from our new report, Deflation and the Devaluation Derby:
The graphs show several key economic measures that reflect years of broad-based distress, despite historic monetary and fiscal stimulus.
The chart above of real mean and median U.S. personal income shows another long-term reversal that is hitting most Americans in their pocketbook. While the mean measure shows, on average, that personal income peaked with the real estate boom in 2006, the median measure shows that half of all U.S. citizens are earning less money in real terms than they were in 2000. The five-wave form of the rise in mean income is further Elliott wave evidence that the decline is about to accelerate.
Our July Elliott Wave Financial Forecast said, "Deflation is just getting started." The October Financial Forecast provided a reminder of that warning and added that deflation "is already deeply entrenched in many flagship quarters of the global economy."
This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Dispatch: U.S. On the Precipice of Deflation. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.
How to Survive the Deflation Economy
Reduction of the general level of prices in an economy.
How to Survive the Deflation Economy. How You Protect Yourself and Your Money When the Debt Bill Comes Due and the Whole World Experiences the Greatest Depression Yet.
GET OUT OF DODGE - STOCK MARKET CRASH IMMINENT
The Dow Jones Utilities average (UTL) is already exhibiting a top in an Elliott five wave down due to a coming surge higher in interest rates!
Delwyn Lounsbury – The Deflation Guru says: GET OUT OF STOCKS, BONDS, COMMODITIES, COLLECTIBLES AND REAL ESTATE!
The U.S. STOCK MARKET TOP appears to be currently in mania blow-off fools rally in an Elliott wave B bear market rally.
Stocks actually topped way back in year 2000 in the dotcom climax blow-off mania top when one divides the subsequent workings of the averages since 2000 by gold, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and/or the Producer Price Index (PPI). The last fifteen years has exhibited a Grand Supercycle bear market (fools) rally fueled by government electronically printed fiat monopoly money now called quantitative easing (QE). The real trend in NOMINAL TERMS IS A DOWNWARD SLOPE GRAPHIC! Robert Prechter calls it the "Slope of Hope."
Bonds and deflation: the 31 year bond bull market topped in the last quarter of 2012 and interest rates have now risen 100% – with much more to come.
Gold and deflation: Gold topped in the fall of 2011 with gold going parabolic to $1,912 per ounce and silver skyrocketing to $49 per ounce. Precious metals most likely will now bounce to $1,450 and then have a multiple year 61.8 percent drop from peak to below $750 per ounce for gold and near $5 per ounce for silver. Silver prices have already dropped 50 percent. Only then, will precious metals prices build a base in what may be the future 10 to 20 year mania and bubble due to governments usual attempt to try to paper over problems punking the populace.
Real estate deflation: The real estate crash of 2007 was just the first shoe to drop. Now comes the multi-year 90 percent drop into a 2021 bottom.
In the coming deflationary crashing asset prices and high interest rates along with fifty percent unemployment threaten your family’s survival. Credit deflation and crashing markets everywhere around the world will chase both debtors and lenders into cash and cash equivalents to pay back dollar obligations. It is estimated that there is only $520 per person in real (fold-able) U.S. paper money script and coin. Even the price of oil may eventually fall to $10 per barrel. Stocks, real estate, most bonds, many commodities, collectibles and artwork may all drop ninety (90) percent, or more. The final bottom is likely to be 2021.
The coming deflation economy will be known as the Greater Depression. When asset values crash your cash ends up in “MONEY HEAVEN.” Poof – gone! Hurry and get prepared for a major deflationary depression three times worse and lasting three times longer than the Great Depression of the 1930′s.
Real unemployment rates are already approaching 14.7% (the government’s own figures), when one includes those who have given up looking or have taken a lower paying part time job. The slowing demand for products and services will make the economic slump more intense. In fact, the real current unemployment rate may be closer to 25% when one includes all those workers that have had to take part time jobs and those who have given up looking for a job and gone back to school or joined the underground economy. The labor force participation rate has declined 60% in the last ten years – even though the baby boomers had to keep working because low interest rates decimated their retirement prospects. A credit deflation is the only cure for credit inflation.
See a short video about the deflationary effect and graphic proof of a cascading Labor Force Participation Rate in America (and likely most of the world) which the administration blames on the boomers. After effect? Snowballing crash!
Robert Prechter says the unemployment rate may hit 50% in 2016-2017 with attendant civil discord, starvation, water shortages and riots in the streets!
This is due to the "multiplier effect" in economics. The multiplier effect (in reverse) says fewer jobs means decreased economic activity as people have less money to buy goods and services. Subsequently, sales drop and businesses have to lay off more and more workers year after year. This is known as a vicious cycle spiral. It acts like a snowball rolling down a hill gaining speed and size.
It won't stop until there is a total wipe-out so as to liquidate years of fraudulent fiat monopoly money creation by some 150 nefarious elite owned central banks the world over. Austrian economics maintains the only cure for credit inflation is a crashing credit deflation. It is a needed healing and curative process.
PS: Stand by the Constitution and free-market thinking. Support the truth told by the alternate media in the Internet Reformation Revolution. Lobby for private gold backed money and smaller government. Get gold and senior gold stocks (at lower prices) and store food, water, propane, guns, necessities and essentials. Get out of debt. Get some “mattress cash.” Cash is king in a deflation economy!
Please help spread the word-please Like, link, donate, play it forward
A MAJOR NEW ECONOMIC TREND IS NOW SOLIDLY IN PLACE...
IT WILL FOOL 9 OUT OF EVERY 10 INVESTORS AND AFFECT EVERYTHING YOU OWN. HURRY! YOUR TIME TO PREPARE IS RUNNING OUT! CLICK LINK!
HURRY! THE CRASH IS COMING! BE PREPARED! Store water, food, necessities, guns and mattress cash!
CASH IS KING IN A DEFLATION!
YOU HAVE BEEN FOREWARNED! GET PREPARED BEFORE IT ITS TOO LATE!
My Mission: To help you survive what will become known as the Greater Depression with a stock market crash three times as large and lasting three times longer than the 1930's hyperdeflation.
Please bookmark this page so that you can come back to this extremely relevant deflation survival guide information. Please like, share, donate and play it forward. The more people prepared and not down at the long soup lines, the wretched shantytown or the squalid tent city - the better.
YOU NEED TO SEE how the Zionist criminal cabal of financial power elite central banking families plan a worldwide socialist dictatorship with you as their subject, servant, serf or slave. That is, if you are not culled in the coming phony Iran war leading to phony World War Three. Afterward you may get a New Dark Ages flame-out like Rome experienced if we don't stop the terrible totalitarian takeover scheme. Go to: http://www.one-world-government.org
HURRY YOUR FREEDOM & LIBERTY ARE AT RISK!
A MAJOR NEW ECONOMIC TREND IS NOW SOLIDLY IN PLACE...
IT WILL FOOL 9 OUT OF EVERY 10 INVESTORS AND AFFECT EVERYTHING YOU OWN. HURRY! YOUR TIME TO PREPARE IS RUNNING OUT! CLICK LINK!
HURRY! THE CRASH IS COMING!
YOU HAVE BEEN FOREWARNED! GET PREPARED BEFORE IT ITS TOO LATE!
FEARLESSLY TEACHING TIMELESS TIMELY TRUTHS IN THE INTERNET REFORMATION REVOLUTION.
I, Delwyn Lounsbury, The Deflation Guru, am an Eagle Scout - trustworthy, truthful and loyal. My mission is to get you to "BE PREPARED" for the deflation economy crisis and a drop of 90% in most of your investments in the coming deflationary Greatest Depression yet..
Relevant analysis of how you can survive the deflation economy. Investment information and articles about the coming deflationary Greater Depression with extreme and urgent timeliness regarding your ability to survive the debilitating market crash dead ahead as most assets drop 90 percent from peak and unemployment reaches 25 to even 50 percent in some countries.
“Our economy is based on spending billions to persuade people that happiness is buying things, and then insisting that the only way to have a viable economy is to make things for people to buy so they’ll have jobs and get enough money to buy things.” ― Philip Slate
Two Elliott Wave experts whom I have been following for a long time, Robert Prechter and Robert McHugh, have been more or less on the same Elliott Wave count over the past 10 years. And both men have talked about the next downturn ushering in an apocalypse. Prechter, who pays a great deal of attention to sociological moods and trends, has talked about the next major stock market crash setting the stage for the next “Dark Age.” Dr. McHugh as talked about “a cataclysmic nation changing event” that will leave those of us who survive living in an impoverished world beyond comprehension for those of us who have been blessed to enjoy the creature comforts of the Western world. Both men believe that we are facing a stock market decline and depression with a magnitude worse than that of the 1930s.
As I observe the sociological changes occurring now with the United States apparently willing to trigger World War III to keep its domination over the BRICS and anyone else who would challenge the NATO powers, it is not hard for me to envision the kind of apocalypse that both Prechter and McHugh envision. For sure, this will be part of the topic of my conversation with Dr. McHugh next Tuesday on my radio show as well as the number one question that should be on everyone’s mind, and that is how can we cope with a future that takes us back to the Middle Ages when 0.1% of the population is extremely rich and the rest of us serve them and live in a level of poverty not even the poorest Americans imagine.
No doubt that will seem a bit extreme and I pray that it is. But the reallocation of wealth, thanks to fiat money, is well underway now over the past 45 years and the wheels on the wagon have not yet even fallen off. They came ever so close to doing so in 2008-09. But by injecting massively more heroine into the veins of our economy, policymakers have managed to keep the patient feeling relatively well while continuing to destroy society’s vital organs. The vital organ that enabled the West to gain its standard of living was capitalism. But that vital organ of our society is being destroyed with massive pain-killing QE. With each dose, we come that much closer to the world that both Dr. McHugh and Robert Prechter have been warning us about.
Throwing away all notion of private property, the Fed has issued trillions upon trillions of fraudulent money. Yes I know you are supposed to believe that the dollar, which is created out of keystrokes on a computer, is legitimate; but believing the legitimacy of that money, you have to also believe in the legitimacy of money created in Al Capone’s basement.
Aside from the moral issue of reallocating (stealing) by creating money out of nothing, that process is completely poisonous for two reasons: (1) Fiat money is created by debt that is showered on the masses, thus leading them into abject poverty; and (2) By creating so much money, the Fed is not enabling capital to be priced according to the genius of the markets.
The result of the monetary pathology can be seen from the Velocity of M2 chart directly on your left. The chart above it, which pictures the monetary base of the Federal Reserve banking monopoly, is in fact a picture of the morphine injected into the economy by the ruling elite for two purposes: (1) To enable the banks to surreptitiously steal wealth from the masses by creating money out of thin air; and (2) To bail the banks out when their dastardly debt-creating deeds rendered the banks bankrupt. The gradual rise in the late 1960s was to fund the Military Industrial Complex during the Vietnam War and to buy votes from the public with growing socialist programs. The Fed and especially the banks that own the Fed loved that freedom when Nixon removed gold from money in 1971, and most people like the short-term high they received as low levels of indebtedness could be repaid and as some stimulus was indeed enjoyed by almost all people. As with many drugs, the first dose makes you feel good but oftentimes you need more and more, faster and faster, to get the same “kick.”
But with each new dose your vital organs are wearing down. And so we reached a major breaking point when the system nearly went kaput in 2008-09. That was when the monetary base rose exponentially to the level where it is today. At the same time, note the precipitous drop in the velocity of money! I explain this by two factors: (1) fear on the part of the masses of not being able to pay for vital living needs; and (2) an actual inability of the masses to pay for vital living requirements. Indeed poverty levels and food stamp recipients have been growing dramatically since the 2008-09 episode. Why so? Because capitalism is being destroyed by the Federal Reserve Bank through the endless printing of money that is not permitting capital to be allocated according to market demands. It is impossible for capitalism to survive if you do not allow price discovery of capital!
So of course the Keynesians say it doesn’t matter if you are broke and can’t pay your mortgagee and put food on your table. The government and its bankers can always print more money and let you borrow it to pay off your debts. All the while, the masses become all the more poverty stricken while the bankers who are creating the money out of thin air live in their luxury townhouses in New York or spend weekends in their mansions on the Atlantic Ocean on the south side of Long Island.
The pathology of existing policy has been obvious to all of us Austrians for many years. We Austrians predicted the housing implosion of 2008-09. And we are predicting the end is very close again, only this time the carnage and suffering will likely make the last one seem like a Sunday afternoon walk in the park on a beautiful, clear, sunny day.
Deflation Economy Testimonials
"As someone who spent a near decade within finance and investment banking, your deflationeconomy.com site was an excellent find. You've got some incredibly potent analysis inside, especially on how crucial the next few years are RE being prepared and ready to pounce on the asset bargains that deflation brings."
By Tuks Engineer
"I see no bottom to the current downward trend. All bubbles are ready to burst and there is nothing the government or anyone else can do to stop it. Real unemployment is trending at close to 20% and special groups like blacks and students are twice that. Housing is doing the dead cat bounce and our political leaders are to busy lining their own pockets to care much what happens in the country. Our enemy's are licking their collective chops and are ready to carve up the rest of the world. Obama is off to Israel to stir the pot and we are on the brink of WWIII while he contemplates the nationalization of all retirement accounts. We follow the trend of history, from slavery, to revolution, to government, to anarchy and finally back to slavery."
W.C. - Arizona
Use Of The Articles On This Site
Many people ask me if they can use the articles on this site.
The answer is most definitely yes.
I very much encourage others to take these articles and spread them wherever they can. The more that see them the more of an impact they will have.
So please feel free to use these articles and distribute them as far and as wide as you can.
When you republish one of the articles please include a direct link back to the original article that would be greatly appreciated.
Please do not hesitate to spread these articles wherever you would like. I want as many people as possible to read them. Hopefully these articles are helping a few more people to wake up to the danger of a crash in the deflationary Greater Depression.
Author: Delwyn Lounsbury - The Deflation Guru
Delwyn (Dell) Lounsbury - Welcome to - www.deflationeconomy.com - How to survive the coming deflationary Greater Depression. Hurry and check out important and timely articles along the left side!
See sister site - http://www.one-world-government.org - Why a 300+ year totalitarian takeover try by Zionist financial power elite central banksters and their cohorts - multi-national corporations, crony military and conniving think tanks like the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), The Trilateral Commission and the Bilderberg Group all funded by giant tax exempt foundations. For some 300 years these communist/socialist oligarchs have secretly directed history through a Jew owned mainstream media and a Hebrew Hollywood toward a fascist new world order dictatorship. Beware the crash with riots and Life and Liberty Loss! Beware coming World War Three and if we don't stop them Beware Coming New Dark Ages Feudalism!
Delwyn Lounsbury lives "off the grid" on 50 acres which has over a thousand trees and few neighbors in the San Francisco Bay Area of California.
He has been a licensed real estate agent since 1968 an is an award winning agent with Coldwell Banker, the largest real estate sales company in America. Coldwell Banker has been in existence since 1906. in the seventies he published "The Economic Survival Letter."
His relevant and informative articles have been published on and/or linked back to by a myriad of websites. Including: Askives.com, Wikihow.com, Zerohedge.com, Christianpress.com, Libertariannews.org, Debate.org, Belligenerentpolitics.com, Worldnewsonline.com, Freerepublic.com, Conservativefocus.com, Examiner.com, Businessweek.com, Glennbeck, Newswithviews.com, Chicagotribune.com, Thesuit.com, Seekingalpha, Beforitsnews, Thedailybell and 1,000 more. Please feel free to use these hard-hitting articles and also link us back to further the cause of Liberty & Freedom.
Legal Notice / Disclaimer: These website articles and information are not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to purchase any investment. Delwyn Lounsbury makes no guarantee, representation or warranty and accepts no responsibility or liability. They are opinion only. Contact your own broker for investing.
This website contains the ideas and opinions of the author. It is a conceptual exploration of financial and general economic principles past present and future. As with any financial discussion of the future, there cannot be any absolute certainty. What this website does not contain is specific investment, legal, tax or any other form of professional advice except to subscribe and pay heed to Elliott Wave International, the world's largest independent investment advisory service at links provided. We are affiliates to advertising on these pages and an affiliate of Elliott Wave International (EWI) and earn a commission for your joining a free Club EWI subscription and to their paid newsletter and other services. If specific advice is needed, it should be sought from an appropriate professional. Any liability, responsibility or warranty for the results of the application of principles contained in articles, websites, readings, videos, DVDs, books and related materials, either directly or indirectly, are expressly disclaimed by the author.
P.S. We have Information on Gold & Silver ready to send you.
Protect Yourself with Gold and Silver
Gold Is Real Money - Always Has Been - Get Gold & Store It Outside Of Banks to Survive! Next Big Bull Gold Run To $100,000 per ounce as governments try to paper over the coming Greater Depression? Click Here For Free Information From Goldbroker.com HURRY!
From: Robert Prechter’s Elliott Wave International. Elliott wave analysis seeks to understand the financial markets using wave patterns based on changing investor psychology as recorded by price movements. It’s an approach different from any other. You can sign up free - HERE
Robert R. Prechter, Jr. The percentage of bears among advisory services, as tallied by Investors Intelligence, just reached its lowest level of the current bull market: 13.3% (see figure below). This means 86.7% of advisors are bullish on the long-term trend. The percentage of bears hasn't been lower since 1987, during wave (5) of 3, near the end of the strongest wave in the bull market. That run resolved in the biggest crash since 1929.Study the chart and notice how many times since 2009 the percentage of bears has been below the lowest reading of 2007. Another amazing aspect of this indicator is the persistence of low numbers since 2012. This long run of uninterrupted optimism parallels the plateauing of momentum oscillators in overbought territory.
The market hasn’t taken a breath for over two years.When it finally exhales, I think it will collapse at the same time.The long period of optimism has made forecasters aggressively positive on stocks and the economy. An economist and an investment strategist at Morgan Stanley have just predicted that the S&P will rise 50% to 3,000 by 2020, 5.33 years from now. We agree entirely on the 3,000 number. We just disagree on the index.Citibank’s technical team is predicting an even faster gain, projecting the S&P as high as 2,400 by January 2015, four months from now. It even recommends that no one worry about the seasonally weak September-October period this year.At the same time, the chief international economist at Morgan Stanley predicts that the “recovery from the great recession could easily extend another five years,” with growth of 3.5% in 2015 and 3.8% in 2016 .He’s not alone. The consensus among economists is that the US will enjoy years of growth at a 3% clip.All these predictions have their bases, but we think one of them is unconscious: the shared optimism of the crowd. Major institutions can afford the smartest economists on the planet. We’re betting against them anyway.Recall that the consensus has also been calling for accelerating growth in Japan and Europe. But Japan has just reported a stunning 7.1% annualized rate of economic contraction for April, May, and June. That’s a depression rate.Meanwhile, Europe is on precipice of deflation, and the US may be as well, as we will discuss next.
A Rising US Dollar Will Signal the Triumph of Deflation
The persistence of inflation from 1933 to 2008 and the Fed’s historically aggressive “quantitative easing” program since that year have kept most people bearish on the future value of the dollar. Rarely does anyone mention that the US Dollar Index (the dollar valued against other currencies) has remained above its low of March 17, 2008, a period so far lasting 6.5 years, as shown in the figure below. After making a low in March 2008, the Dollar Index remained in a bottoming process for four months, until July 15, 2008. The Bloomberg index of commodities made its all-time closing high on July 2, 2008. Starting that month, both indexes changed direction and have not seen those extremes since. The Dollar Index tested the 2008 bottom with a daily closing low on April 29, 2011. Silver made its daily closing high for the decade on April 28, 2011.Once again, the Dollar Index remained in a bottoming process for four months, ending on August 29. Gold made a double top at that time, with daily closing highs of $1,898 on August 22 and $1,899.80 on September 5, 2011. These tops are exactly equally spaced from August 29, by one week on either side. Gold, silver, and the dollar changed direction that year and have not seen those extremes since.In other words, bottoms in the US Dollar Index came right when other indexes of inflation were making their all-time highs. Each time, they reversed together.Since 2008, near-term highs and lows in the Dollar Index have coincided with near-term lows and highs in commodities (see next figure) and stocks. Together they are tracking trends in inflation and deflation.As illustrated in the second figure, the joint reversal in the Dollar Index and in commodities in 2008 signaled the time at which decades of persistent inflation yielded to a standoff between inflation and deflation, which has continued ever since. During this period, the swings have been dramatic. Deflation was dominant as all markets fell into March 2009. Thereafter, inflation was dominant until the metals peaked in 2011. Since 2011, the standoff has gotten more balanced, with inflationary tendencies manifesting in the stock market and deflationary tendencies manifesting in the precious metals.
Commodities have taken a middle path, rising and falling underneath old highs.Drilling down, we can see that many minor turns in financial markets have also been related to the timing of turns in the Dollar Index. The latest bout of Dollar Index weakness ended on the closing low of May 6. The countertrend rally in the Bloomberg commodity index ended just a week earlier, on April 29. Since then, commodity prices have fallen while the dollar has risen. The Dollar Index has been especially strong since its near-term low of June 30.Not coincidentally, commodities ended their countertrend rally on June 25 and began crumbling hard.
Everyone’s favorite commodity—crude oil—has fallen from $107.73 to $91.80 per barrel just since June. Silver, which no one talks about any more, is back in the teens after peaking in 2011 at nearly $50/ounce. Gold has completed a beautiful contracting triangle on July 10 and is about to plunge to a new low for the bear market.We have long stated that when the stock market turns down, it will signal the final triumph of deflation, because then all markets will be reflecting deflation. When will that happen?The wave structures on all financial markets (per the Elliott wave labels in the final figure above, for example) are bearish except one: the US dollar. Investors have hated the dollar for many years, making it sold out on a long-term basis.
Near term, the Daily Sentiment Index (trade-futures.com) recently recorded only 4% bulls on the euro, so a counter-trend bounce against the dollar is in the offing. But long term, the dollar is probably starting a bull market. If the US dollar has started a major rise, all other markets are doomed. Since the stock market has been holding up in the face of the recently strong dollar, it seems likely that when stocks cave, they will play “catch-up” and cave big.To continue reading the rest of Prechter’s 18-page special double issue, plus all of Elliott Wave International’s latest analysis for US, European, and Asian-Pacific stocks, and the major metals, commodities, and currency pairs, Join the free. HURRY!
Power of Prophecy and Texe Marrs have uncovered irrefutable evidence that Congress, including Republican House Speaker John Boehner and Republican Majority Leader Eric Cantor, has been working clandestinely since 2010, with Barack Obama and the White House to:
3. Set up a White House-run, military-style, technological Police State that will enslave all American citizens forever.
Over seven trillion dollars has been spent on these secret projects to turn the United States into the wheelhouse (center) of a miserable New World Order. The New World Order is at the command of elitist Zionists, and their traitorous gentile underlings, who own the global banking system, including the puppet Federal Reserve. Their coup d’etat of America is virtually complete.
Republican and Democrat politicians alike are complicit in this fraudulent system and conspiracy. Every politician, including Israeli lackeys Senator Ted Cruz and Senator Rand Paul, has sold out.
Every politician must be punished by removal from office. You and I cannot depend on any politician. If a man or a woman has been elected to the high office of U.S. Senator or the House of Representatives, he or she is corrupt and evil.
It is absolutely essential that every one of these sniveling cowards and liars be immediately removed from office. We must use every legal means at our disposal to remove and evict them. Voting does not work, since it means kicking one corrupt politician out and putting yet another deviant politician in. Do Not Vote. Do not waste your time, money, and energy.
We must immediately move to:
1. Remove all politicians from office.
2. Dismantle anything and everything connected to the federal government. (Everything of value devolves to the People of the 50 States).
3. Begin anew as free and individual Sovereign Peoples under a State Constitution that provides liberty and freedom to all and protects the innocent from commercial and government corruption, crime, and tyranny.*Let ours be a legal Jeffersonian Revolution to clean out the immoral and corrupt riff-raff and begin anew, seeking honesty, truth, freedom and liberty.
*Let us throw off the hard and velvet chains that hold us back from economic prosperity and individual freedom and liberty.
*Let us anew be free men and women, breathing in the fragrant odor of love, harmony, and goodwill for every fellow citizen who likewise cherishes and longs for liberty and justice.
*Let freedom ring and let the New World Order and its corrupt minions perish forever from our land.
Sincerely in Christ Jesus,
Author and Publisher: Delwyn Lounsbury - The Deflation Guru
Please visit our- www.deflationeconomy.com - How to survive the coming Zionist bankster caused deflationary Greater Depression. Hurry and get prepared! Store food, water, guns, mattress cash and necessities as a deep dire dangerous crash sends 90% of the value of most of your assets to money heaven for years.
The excrement is going to hit the fan. There will be riots in the streets as the biggest excess credit mania in history implodes with 90% drops most stocks, bonds, real estate, and collectibles. Unemployment will exceed 50%. Even gold (after bouncing to $1,450 or so in 2015) will likely drop to $700, or so. This is the big one, people, and it will not be over until 2022. In a bear market cash is king. Right, the only bull market will be in cash!
PS Don't plan on the markets coming back anytime soon this time. Hurry the crash is coming! BE (GET) PREPARED!!!
www.one-world-government.org - A secret 300+ year totalitarian takeover try by a Zionist financial power elite central banksters cabal cartel and their cohorts - multinational corporations, crony military and punked educators. Conniving Zionist run think tanks running the world's governments behind the scenes like the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), the Trilateral Commission and the Bilderberg Group are all funded by giant corrupted tax exempt foundations controlling corrupt politicians, hoodwinked scholastic personnel, compromised government bureaucrats and other corrupted leaders. SABOTAGE!
With near total control of the mainstream media and Hollywood, Zionists - BOTH - neocons (neoconservatives) and neolibs (neoliberals) - have directed history toward a fascist new new world order dictatorship. 9/11 is their latest coup Terrorism is the biggest white flag/red herring ever.
World War Three and a New Dark Ages depopulating the planet will result if we don't stop them. It is we-the-people who sacrifice money, labor, blood, lives and our future (and our children' future) to fascist Zionist collectivist communist globalist facilities like the pending trade tariff subterfuges and wars along with everything and anything connected to the United Nations, which take our freedom and money.
BEWARE LOOMING LIBERTY LOSS AND MARTIAL LAW BY A BIG BROTHER FASCIST SURVEILLANCE STATE DICTATORSHIP RIGHT OUT OF GEORGE ORWELL'S "1984" BOOK.!
Beware the United Nations. Prepare for the coming deflation of the Greater Depression. Beware WWIII and coming New Dark Ages feudalism! The elite modus operendi (MO) is always build tension and chaos - out of chaos comes order - a new world order and CONTROL. This is the Marxist Hegelian dialectic and it is always about tension and turmoil leading to bigger Leviathan government CONTROL - of you.
Join the Internet Reformation Revolution! Store food, water, cash, guns and essentials. We will have to fight to the last man standing.
Delwyn Lounsbury lives "off the grid" on 50 acres which has over a thousand trees and few neighbors in the San Francisco Bay Area of California. He is an Eagle Scout - trustworthy and loyal.
In the seventies Dell published "The Economic Survival Letter."
His relevant and informative articles have been published on and linked back to by a myriad of websites - Including: Askives.com, Wikihow.com, Zerohedge.com, Christianpress.com, Libertariannews.org, Debate.org, Belligenerentpolitics.com, Worldnewsonline.com, Freerepublic.com, Conservativefocus.com, Examiner.com, Businessweek.com, Glennbeck.com, Newswithviews.com, Chicagotribune.com, Thesuit.com, Seekingalpha.com, Beforeitsnews.com, Thedailybell.com, theburningplatform.com & more.
Please feel free to use these hard-hitting articles and also LIKE & LINK BACK TO US, DONATE AND PLAY IT FORWARD to further the cause of Liberty & Freedom against Tyranny and authoritarian dictatorship.
Legal Notice / Disclaimer: These website articles and information are not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to purchase any investment. Delwyn Lounsbury makes no guarantee, representation or warranty and accepts no responsibility or liability. They are opinion only. Contact your own broker for all investing.
This website contains the ideas and opinions of the author. It is a conceptual exploration of financial and general economic principles past present and future. As with any financial discussion of the future, there cannot be any absolute certainty. What this website does not contain is specific investment, legal, tax or any other form of professional advice except - to subscribe and pay heed to Elliott Wave International, the world's largest independent investment advisory service, at links provided. We are affiliates to advertising on these pages and an affiliate of Elliott Wave International (EWI) the world's largest independent investor advisory service and earn a commission for your joining a free Club EWI and any subscription to their paid newsletter and other services. Hurry and join free at links on this page. If specific advice is needed, it should be sought from an appropriate professional. Any liability, responsibility or warranty for the results of the application of principles contained in articles, websites, readings, videos, DVDs, books and related materials, either directly or indirectly, are expressly disclaimed by the author.
Economic Collapse Investing - Hurry Before You Are Too Late!
BEST $14 YOU WILL EVER SPEND - NOW!
CRASH STARTING - HURRY!
GET YOUR WEALTH TRIGGER SECRETS ASAP Click Here!
I, DELWYN LOUNSBURY THE DEFLATION GURU, am an Eagle Scout who is loyal, truthful, honest and trustworthy to you. “Be Prepared” is the Boy Scout motto. Isn't it?
Beware the coming deflationary Greater Depression caused by years of evil Zionist bankster economic turmoil and war leading to a totalitarian takeover in a fascist socialist one world government dictatorship. Hurry before it is too late - GET PREPARED by joining Club EWI (Elliott Wave International
Get Hosted by Sitesell Same as this Page! Many Benefits Click Below for info!
WHY PRESIDENT JOHNSON, J. EDGAR HOOVER, THE CIA, MASSOD, MAFIA, BANKSTERS ALL ZIONISTS * KILLED PRESIDENT KENNEDY IN A FASCIST COUP TO FURTHER ONE WORLD GOVERNMENT BY SOCIALIST DICTATORSHIP * PS MAINSTREAM MEDIA, HOLLYWOOD AND BOTH POLITICAL PARTIES ARE NOW ZIONIST
JFK CONSPIRACY SPEECH - REASON PRESIDENT JOHNSON AND HEAD OF FBI - J. EDGAR HOOVER DO COVERT COUP KILLING PRESIDENT JOHN F KENNEDY.
THEN IN BANKSTER SECRET SUBVERSION SABOTAGE SCHEME - THEY HAVE JACK RUBY - (RUBENSTEIN - ZIONIST MAFIA) - CLEAN UP AND ASSASSINATE PATSY LEE HARVEY OSWALD
By JFK 1961
"The very word "secrecy" is repugnant in a free and open society; and we are as a people inherently and historically opposed to secret societies, to secret oaths and secret proceedings.
We decided long ago that the dangers of excessive and unwarranted concealment of pertinent facts far outweighed the dangers which are cited to justify it. Even today, there is little value in opposing the threat of a closed society by imitating its arbitrary restrictions.
Even today, there is little value in insuring the survival of our nation if our traditions do not survive with it. And there is very grave danger that an announced need for increased security will be seized upon those anxious to expand its meaning to the very limits of official censorship and concealment.
That I do not intend to permit to the extent that it is in my control.
And no official of my Administration, whether his rank is high or low, civilian or military, should interpret my words here tonight as an excuse to censor the news, to stifle dissent, to cover up our mistakes or to withhold from the press and the public the facts they deserve to know."
For we are opposed around the world by a monolithic and ruthless conspiracy that relies on covert means for expanding its sphere of influence--on infiltration instead of invasion, on subversion instead of elections, on intimidation instead of free choice, on guerrillas by night instead of armies by day.
It is a system which has conscripted vast human and material resources into the building of a tightly knit, highly efficient machine that combines military, diplomatic, intelligence, economic, scientific and political operations.
Its preparations are concealed, not published. Its mistakes are buried not headlined. Its dissenters are silenced, not praised. No expenditure is questioned, no rumor is printed, no secret is revealed."
"No President should fear public scrutiny of his program. For from that scrutiny comes understanding; and from that understanding comes support or opposition. And both are necessary.
I am not asking your newspapers to support the Administration, but I am asking your help in the tremendous task of informing and alerting the American people. For I have complete confidence in the response and dedication of our citizens whenever they are fully informed.
I not only could not stifle controversy among your readers-- I welcome it.
This Administration intends to be candid about its errors; for as a wise man once said: "An error does not become a mistake until you refuse to correct it." We intend to accept full responsibility for our errors; and we expect you to point them out when we miss them.
Without debate, without criticism, no Administration and no country can succeed-- and no republic can survive.
That is why the Athenian lawmaker Solon decreed it a crime for any citizen to shrink from controversy.
And that is why our press was protected by the First Amendment-- the only business in America specifically protected by the Constitution-- not primarily to amuse and entertain, not to emphasize the trivial and sentimental, not to simply "give the public what it wants"--but to inform, to arouse, to reflect, to state our dangers and our opportunities, to indicate our crises and our choices, to lead, mold, educate and sometimes even anger public opinion.
This means greater coverage and analysis of international news-- for it is no longer far away and foreign but close at hand and local. It means greater attention to improved understanding of the news as well as improved transmission. And it means, finally, that government at all levels, must meet its obligation to provide you with the fullest possible information outside the narrowest limits of national security...
And so it is to the printing press--to the recorder of mans deeds, the keeper of his conscience, the courier of his news-- that we look for strength and assistance, confident that with your help man will be what he was born to be: free and independent."
Barack Hussein Obama never wrote the book advertised here in a 1991
publishers promotional pamphlet put out by his literary agency, Acton
& Dystel, of a coming Obama book for sale, "Images in Black and
Instead, Obama wrote (some say communist Bill Ayers
actually wrote) "Dreams from My Father" an autobiography with a
socialist slant depicting his communist father as an anticolonialist
blaming the west for all the world's ills.
That is where lawless
Obama's rogue renegade radical leftist transforming change ideas came
from. Obama's upbringing came from communist family members (father and
both grandparents on his mothers side), socialist mother and friends. In
fact, Obama's mentor and tutor. Frank Marshal Davis, was on the FBI
communist watch list - member of Communist Party USA (CPUSA) card number
47544. Then came Marxist groups in college and finally socialist groups
like the New Party in Chicago where he was a community organizer
See actual brochure from his publicist stating Barack Hussein Obama was born in Kenya, Africa - above.
"Hope and Change" campaign slogan has morphed into WE HOPE HE CHANGES.
Narcissist Obama showed himself to be an ideologue and a fascist
dictator puppet and mole for the criminal Anglo American financial power
elite international central banking families. This criminal cabal run
by the Zioniist Rothschild and Rockefeller family cabal cartel control
all the central (sovereign) banks of the world and wants one world
government/new world order aka new underworld order control goal of
global socialist fascist dictatorship at any cost or means.
in the Greater Depression, which actually began with the year 2000 dot
com bust, along with the plight of most American citizens worsened under
his statist agenda. Obama's legacy will be trillions of wasted stimulus
spending, grotesque government growth and over 1,000 dictatorial
executive orders - many unconstitutional - most illegal - all socialist
Working for his elite Rothschild handlers,
Obama has led us to the brink of economic collapse and planned coup by
Zionist bankster oligarchs who already control both political parties in
A phony Iran, Syrian and Ukrainian war leading to a
phony World War Three threatening the very survival of mankind is next
if we don't stop the insanity. Watch out for false flag nuclear
explosions in the Ukraine and Iran.
The American, NATO and
Israel elite scheme is to get the people so confused and demoralized
that they can abscond with the last of the world's middle classes power,
freedom and money in the coming Greatest Depression.
THINK: BIG BROTHER AND THE MAFIA JOIN UP!
The BANKSTER elite want a fascist socialist one world government dictatorship.
It's all about control of you and I. Pure Tyranny!