Editor’s note: You’ll find a very important theme running through the Dispatch over the next five days…
We’re going to discuss the secrets of Casey Research founder Doug Casey’s wildly successful investment strategy…one that has made him tens of millions of dollars in the markets. For each of the next five days, you’ll receive an essay about how this strategy can potentially add tens of thousands of dollars a year to your investment returns…
It's one of the most valuable ideas in finance…
This idea is simple and extremely powerful. It forms the basis of a highly profitable stock-picking system…one that consistently beats the market during both bull and bear markets…with a 104-year track record to prove it.
The system doesn’t give “buy signals” often. But when it does, the results are incredible. Used correctly, you can expect average gains of 30% in one year and 120%-170% in three years.
• Before I tell you about this idea, you should understand one thing…
Most people aren't cut out for this type of investing.
As I mentioned, this idea is profitable…simple to understand…and easy to execute.
However, it has a downside. It forces you to go against the crowd.
That’s the reason why, despite its long-term track record of producing big profits, less than 1 in 10,000 people use it.
To follow this strategy, you must be willing to “hold your nose” and buy stocks that look like “dead money” to folks who don’t understand this idea. Stocks that CNBC and other mainstream media outlets have brainwashed the public into hating.
Used correctly, this strategy will make you money. But it may result in moments of uncomfortableness. Folks at a cocktail party may drift away from you when you admit you own these stocks. If your stock broker doesn’t understand this idea, he might think you’ve lost your mind.
If you can’t handle the uncomfortableness, this strategy isn’t for you.
But if you’re OK with all those things, read on. Think of them as the “costs” of making superior returns in the stock market.
• This idea is based on a financial anomaly called “mean reversion”…
If you're not familiar with this term, it simply means that a stock will eventually move back to its average price.
Most investors know stocks don’t go up forever. When the dot-com bubble crashed after spiking an incredible 238% in less than two years, that was mean reversion. When the U.S. stock market crashed in 1929 after the “Roaring 20s” pushed it to crazy heights, that was mean reversion.
But this idea doesn’t require you to short (bet against) anything. Mean reversion works in the other direction, too. Just like stocks can’t rise forever, it’s equally true that they can't fall forever.
Sometimes a stock market gets so cheap…so hated…and drops so far in price…that it’s virtually guaranteed to bounce back strong.
This system identifies those stocks for you. And the data proves, without a doubt, that buying stocks poised to “mean revert” is a very profitable strategy.
• To follow this idea, look for stocks with this rare attribute…
Look for stock markets, industries, and sectors that have declined three years in a row.
Keep in mind, these situations are rare. Three consecutive years of lower prices almost never happens. According to a study by our friend Meb Faber, those instances occurred less than 3% of the time from 1903 to 2007.
Meb's a brilliant researcher and one of the few truly original thinkers in finance.
To test the performance of a “mean reversion” strategy, he studied both whole countries (with an investable stock market) and asset classes (types of investments) to determine if they showed any patterns.
As I mentioned, markets almost never fell three years in a row. But when they did, the following bull market was extremely powerful.
The average return in stocks for whole countries during the fourth year was more than 30%.
That's an incredible result, something that wouldn't happen by chance. This big move higher is caused by reversion to the mean, not chance.
When Meb studied asset classes, he found similar numbers… After three years in a row of falling stock prices, the average return in the fourth year was 34%, almost three times higher than the average return of all the years in the study.
Again, statistical analysis tells us these are significant results, not just chance.
They're proof of mean reversion in stock prices. Buying assets that are down three years in a row is a powerful market strategy.
• And Meb found a way to make the results even better…
Meb also researched the idea that mean reversion would lead to even more powerful stock rallies when the previous destruction of value was the greatest.
He studied countries with stock markets that declined by 80% or more.
On average, these countries saw their indexes rebound by nearly 120% in the three years that followed.
And that's not all…
Meb found the same type of huge rebounds in different industry groups, too.
He studied U.S. industry groups going back to the 1920s.
When a U.S. industry group fell by 80% or more from a peak, the average return three years later was more than 170%.
These statistics are amazing…and proof that investing in depressed markets leads to gigantic returns.
It’s common sense really. When investors get extremely frustrated with an asset class, they abandon it. Prices decline to absurdly cheap levels. And just like the cycle of day and night, extreme bear market turns into extreme bull market.
• To recap…
Remember, this strategy boils down to one simple idea: Look for markets, industry groups, and sectors that have fallen for three years in a row. Buy them. Big average gains will follow.
And to increase your returns even more, look for markets, industry groups, and sectors that have lost 80% or more of their value from a peak. These situations are rare…you won’t find them often. But 104 years of data shows that when they do occur, you can make average gains of 120%-170%.
It’s a wonderfully simple—and profitable—strategy that most investors are too afraid to try. But as you can see, when used correctly, it's a great way to book huge gains.
• This strategy will sound familiar to longtime readers of Doug Casey…
As you may know, Doug wrote New York Times #1 bestseller, Crisis Investing. Many experts consider it to be one of the best investing books of all time. Legendary stock picker Sir John Templeton was known to keep a copy on his bookshelf.
At the core of Crisis Investing is a powerful idea. By investing intelligently in extremely cheap markets and sectors, you can make huge investment returns.
Although Meb’s data wasn’t available to Doug when Doug wrote this book in 1979, it proves that Doug’s strategy not only works…but is one of the most powerful secrets in all of investing.
Using this strategy, Doug has amassed a literal fortune…more wealth than the average person can spend in 20 lifetimes. He once made a 64,000% gain (not a typo) buying into what would become the world’s richest nickel and copper mine. Another time he made 1,000%+ gains investing in a small Alaskan mining business.
That’s why we’re excited to announce, for the first time ever, Doug is revealing the exact secrets behind his strategy during a free online training event.
And best of all, you don’t have to have millions of dollars or run a hedge fund to use this strategy. You only need a few thousand dollars and an ordinary brokerage account with a company like E-Trade, TD Ameritrade, or Scottrade.
Reduction of the general level of prices in an economy.
How to Survive the Deflation Economy. How You Protect Yourself and Your Money When the Debt Bill Comes Due and the Whole World Experiences the Greatest Depression Yet.
By Delwyn Lounsbury - THE DEFLATION GURU
GET OUT OF DODGE - STOCK MARKET CRASH IMMINENT
The Dow Jones Utilities average (UTL) is already exhibiting a top in an Elliott five wave down due to a coming surge higher in interest rates!
Delwyn Lounsbury – The Deflation Guru says: GET OUT OF STOCKS, BONDS, COMMODITIES, COLLECTIBLES AND REAL ESTATE!
Stocks and Deflation: The U.S. STOCK MARKET TOP appears to be currently in a mania blow-off a fools rally in an Elliott wave B bear market rally leading to a "C" wave down ending in 2022. See chart above from the maverick Federal Reserve Bank of Saint Louis, Missouri showing STAGNATION AND CRASH OF CORPORATE PROFITS AFTER TAX NEXT ON THE GRAPH.
Stocks actually topped way back in year 2000 in the dotcom climax blow-off mania top when one divides the subsequent workings of the averages since 2000 by gold, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and/or the Producer Price Index (PPI). The last fifteen years has exhibited a Supercycle bear market (fools) rally fueled by government electronically printed fiat monopoly money now called quantitative easing (QE). The real trend in NOMINAL TERMS IS A DOWNWARD SLOPE GRAPHIC! Robert Prechter calls it the "Slope of Hope."
Bonds and Deflation: The 31 year bond bull market topped in the last quarter of 2012 and interest rates have now risen 100% – with much more to come.
Gold and Deflation: Gold topped in the fall of 2011 with gold going parabolic to $1,912 per ounce and silver skyrocketing to $49 per ounce. Precious metals most likely will now bounce to $1,450 and then have a multiple year 61.8 percent drop from peak to below $750 per ounce for gold and near $5 per ounce for silver. Silver prices have already dropped 50 percent. Only then, will precious metals prices build a base in what may be the future 10 to 20 year mania and bubble due to governments usual attempt to try to paper over problems punking the populace with prostituted fiat money.
Real Estate Deflation: The real estate crash of 2007 was just the first shoe to drop. Now comes the multi-year 90 percent drop into a 2022 bottom.
In the coming deflationary crashing asset prices and high interest rates along with fifty percent unemployment threaten your family’s survival. Credit deflation and crashing markets everywhere around the world will chase both debtors and lenders into cash and cash equivalents to pay back dollar obligations. It is estimated that there is only $520 per person in real (fold-able) U.S. paper money script and base metal coin specie.
Even the price of oil may eventually fall to $10 per barrel. Stocks, real estate, most bonds, many commodities, collectibles and artwork may all drop ninety (90) percent, or more. The final bottom is likely to be 2022.
The coming deflation economy will be known as the Greater Depression. When asset values crash your cash ends up in “MONEY HEAVEN.” Poof – gone! Hurry and get prepared for a major deflationary depression three times worse and lasting three times longer than the Great Depression of the 1930′s.
Real unemployment rates are already approaching 14.7% (the government’s own figures), when one includes those who have given up looking or have taken a lower paying part time job. The slowing demand for products and services will make the economic slump more intense. In fact, the real current unemployment rate may be closer to 25% when one includes all those workers that have had to take part time jobs and those who have given up looking for a job and gone back to school or joined the underground economy. The labor force participation rate has declined 60% in the last ten years – even though the baby boomers had to keep working because low interest rates decimated their retirement prospects. A credit deflation is the only cure for credit inflation.
See a short video about the deflationary effect and graphic proof of a cascading Labor Force Participation Rate in America (and likely most of the world) which the administration blames on the boomers. After effect? A snowballing crash!
Robert Prechter says the unemployment rate may hit 50% in 2016-2017 with attendant civil discord, starvation, water shortages and riots in the streets!
This is due to the "multiplier effect" in economics. The multiplier effect (in reverse) says fewer jobs means decreased economic activity as people have less money to buy goods and services. Subsequently, sales drop and businesses have to lay off more and more workers year after year. This is known as a vicious cycle spiral. It acts like a snowball rolling down a hill gaining speed and size.
It won't stop until there is a total wipe-out so as to liquidate years of fraudulent fiat monopoly money creation by some 150 nefarious Zionist elite owned central banks the world over. Austrian economics maintains the only cure for credit inflation is a crashing credit deflation. It is a needed healing and curative process.
PS: Stand by the Constitution and free-market thinking. Support the truth told by the alternate media in the Internet Reformation Revolution. Lobby for private gold backed money and smaller government. Get gold and senior gold stocks (at lower prices) and store food, water, propane, guns, ammo, necessities and essentials. Get out of debt. Get some “mattress cash.” Cash is king in a deflation economy!
Please help spread the word. Please Like, link, donate, play it forward and especially join Robert Prechter's Club EWI for FREE at links.
A MAJOR NEW ECONOMIC TREND IS NOW SOLIDLY IN PLACE...
IT WILL FOOL 9 OUT OF EVERY 10 INVESTORS AND AFFECT EVERYTHING YOU OWN. HURRY! YOUR TIME TO PREPARE IS RUNNING OUT! CLICK LINK!
HURRY! THE CRASH IS COMING! BE PREPARED! Store water, food, necessities, guns, ammo, pre 1965 silver coins for barter and mattress cash!
CASH IS KING IN A DEFLATION!
YOU HAVE BEEN FOREWARNED! GET PREPARED BEFORE IT ITS TOO LATE!
My Mission: To help you survive what will become known as the Greater Depression with a stock market crash three times as large and lasting three times longer than the 1930's hyperdeflation.
Please bookmark this page so that you can come back to this extremely relevant deflation survival guide information. Please like, share, donate and play it forward. The more people prepared and not down at the long soup lines, the wretched shantytown or the squalid tent city and dyeing in the rioting and violence - the better.
Author Delwyn Lounsbury - The Deflation Guru
YOU NEED TO SEE how the Zionist criminal cabal of financial power elite central banking families plan a worldwide socialist dictatorship with you as their subject, servant, serf or slave. That is, if you are not culled in the coming phony Iran war leading to phony World War Three. Afterward you may get a New Dark Ages flame-out like Rome experienced if we don't stop the terrible totalitarian takeover scheme. Go to: http://www.one-world-government.org
HURRY YOUR FREEDOM & LIBERTY ARE AT RISK!
A MAJOR NEW ECONOMIC TREND IS NOW SOLIDLY IN PLACE...
IT WILL FOOL 9 OUT OF EVERY 10 INVESTORS AND AFFECT EVERYTHING YOU OWN. HURRY! YOUR TIME TO PREPARE IS RUNNING OUT! CLICK LINKS!
HURRY! THE CRASH IS COMING!
YOU HAVE BEEN FOREWARNED! GET PREPARED BEFORE IT ITS TOO LATE!
FEARLESSLY TEACHING TIMELESS TIMELY TRUTHS IN THE INTERNET REFORMATION REVOLUTION.
I, Delwyn Lounsbury, The Deflation Guru, am an Eagle Scout - trustworthy, truthful and loyal. My mission is to get you to "BE PREPARED" for the deflation economy crisis and a drop of 90% in most of your investments in the coming deflationary Greatest Depression yet..
Relevant analysis of how you can survive the deflation economy. Investment information and articles about the coming deflationary Greater Depression with extreme and urgent timeliness regarding your ability to survive the debilitating market crash dead ahead as most assets drop 90 percent from peak and unemployment reaches 25 to even 50 percent in some countries.
“Our economy is based on spending billions to persuade people that happiness is buying things, and then insisting that the only way to have a viable economy is to make things for people to buy so they’ll have jobs and get enough money to buy things.” ― Philip Slate
Two Elliott Wave experts whom I have been following for a long time, Robert Prechter and Robert McHugh, have been more or less on the same Elliott Wave count over the past 10 years. And both men have talked about the next downturn ushering in an apocalypse. Prechter, who pays a great deal of attention to sociological moods and trends, has talked about the next major stock market crash setting the stage for the next “Dark Age.” Dr. McHugh as talked about “a cataclysmic nation changing event” that will leave those of us who survive living in an impoverished world beyond comprehension for those of us who have been blessed to enjoy the creature comforts of the Western world. Both men believe that we are facing a stock market decline and depression with a magnitude worse than that of the 1930s.
As I observe the sociological changes occurring now with the United States apparently willing to trigger World War III to keep its domination over the BRICS and anyone else who would challenge the NATO powers, it is not hard for me to envision the kind of apocalypse that both Prechter and McHugh envision. For sure, this will be part of the topic of my conversation with Dr. McHugh next Tuesday on my radio show as well as the number one question that should be on everyone’s mind, and that is how can we cope with a future that takes us back to the Middle Ages when 0.1% of the population is extremely rich and the rest of us serve them and live in a level of poverty not even the poorest Americans imagine.
No doubt that will seem a bit extreme and I pray that it is. But the reallocation of wealth, thanks to fiat money, is well underway now over the past 45 years and the wheels on the wagon have not yet even fallen off. They came ever so close to doing so in 2008-09. But by injecting massively more heroine into the veins of our economy, policymakers have managed to keep the patient feeling relatively well while continuing to destroy society’s vital organs. The vital organ that enabled the West to gain its standard of living was capitalism. But that vital organ of our society is being destroyed with massive pain-killing QE. With each dose, we come that much closer to the world that both Dr. McHugh and Robert Prechter have been warning us about.
Throwing away all notion of private property, the Fed has issued trillions upon trillions of fraudulent money. Yes I know you are supposed to believe that the dollar, which is created out of keystrokes on a computer, is legitimate; but believing the legitimacy of that money, you have to also believe in the legitimacy of money created in Al Capone’s basement.
Aside from the moral issue of reallocating (stealing) by creating money out of nothing, that process is completely poisonous for two reasons: (1) Fiat money is created by debt that is showered on the masses, thus leading them into abject poverty; and (2) By creating so much money, the Fed is not enabling capital to be priced according to the genius of the markets.
The result of the monetary pathology can be seen from the Velocity of M2 chart directly on your left. The chart above it, which pictures the monetary base of the Federal Reserve banking monopoly, is in fact a picture of the morphine injected into the economy by the ruling elite for two purposes: (1) To enable the banks to surreptitiously steal wealth from the masses by creating money out of thin air; and (2) To bail the banks out when their dastardly debt-creating deeds rendered the banks bankrupt. The gradual rise in the late 1960s was to fund the Military Industrial Complex during the Vietnam War and to buy votes from the public with growing socialist programs. The Fed and especially the banks that own the Fed loved that freedom when Nixon removed gold from money in 1971, and most people like the short-term high they received as low levels of indebtedness could be repaid and as some stimulus was indeed enjoyed by almost all people. As with many drugs, the first dose makes you feel good but oftentimes you need more and more, faster and faster, to get the same “kick.”
But with each new dose your vital organs are wearing down. And so we reached a major breaking point when the system nearly went kaput in 2008-09. That was when the monetary base rose exponentially to the level where it is today. At the same time, note the precipitous drop in the velocity of money! I explain this by two factors: (1) fear on the part of the masses of not being able to pay for vital living needs; and (2) an actual inability of the masses to pay for vital living requirements. Indeed poverty levels and food stamp recipients have been growing dramatically since the 2008-09 episode. Why so? Because capitalism is being destroyed by the Federal Reserve Bank through the endless printing of money that is not permitting capital to be allocated according to market demands. It is impossible for capitalism to survive if you do not allow price discovery of capital!
So of course the Keynesians say it doesn’t matter if you are broke and can’t pay your mortgagee and put food on your table. The government and its bankers can always print more money and let you borrow it to pay off your debts. All the while, the masses become all the more poverty stricken while the bankers who are creating the money out of thin air live in their luxury townhouses in New York or spend weekends in their mansions on the Atlantic Ocean on the south side of Long Island.
The pathology of existing policy has been obvious to all of us Austrians for many years. We Austrians predicted the housing implosion of 2008-09. And we are predicting the end is very close again, only this time the carnage and suffering will likely make the last one seem like a Sunday afternoon walk in the park on a beautiful, clear, sunny day.
Deflation Economy Testimonials
"As someone who spent a near decade within finance and investment banking, your deflationeconomy.com site was an excellent find. You've got some incredibly potent analysis inside, especially on how crucial the next few years are RE being prepared and ready to pounce on the asset bargains that deflation brings."
By Tuks Engineer
"I see no bottom to the current downward trend. All bubbles are ready to burst and there is nothing the government or anyone else can do to stop it. Real unemployment is trending at close to 20% and special groups like blacks and students are twice that. Housing is doing the dead cat bounce and our political leaders are to busy lining their own pockets to care much what happens in the country. Our enemy's are licking their collective chops and are ready to carve up the rest of the world. Obama is off to Israel to stir the pot and we are on the brink of WWIII while he contemplates the nationalization of all retirement accounts. We follow the trend of history, from slavery, to revolution, to government, to anarchy and finally back to slavery."
W.C. - Arizona
Use Of The Articles On This Site
Many people ask me if they can use the articles on this site.
The answer is most definitely yes.
I very much encourage others to take these articles and spread them wherever they can. The more that see them the more of an impact they will have.
So please feel free to use these articles and distribute them as far and as wide as you can.
When you republish one of the articles please include a direct link back to the original article that would be greatly appreciated.
Please do not hesitate to spread these articles wherever you would like. I want as many people as possible to read them. Hopefully these articles are helping a few more people to wake up to the danger of a crash in the deflationary Greater Depression.
Author: Delwyn Lounsbury - The Deflation Guru
Delwyn (Dell) Lounsbury - Welcome to - www.deflationeconomy.com - How to survive the coming deflationary Greater Depression. Hurry and check out important and timely articles along the left side!
See sister site - http://www.one-world-government.org - The why and how of a 300+ year totalitarian takeover try by Zionist financial power elite central banksters and their cohorts - corrupt politicians, international corporations, a crony military and conniving think tanks like the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), The Trilateral Commission, Tavistock and the Bilderberg Group all funded by giant tax exempt foundations. For some 300 years these communist/socialist oligarchs have secretly directed history through their wholly owned mainstream media and Hollywood toward a fascist Zionist new world order DICTATORSHIP. Beware the crash with riots and Life and Liberty Loss! Beware coming World War Three and if we don't stop them Beware Coming New Dark Ages Feudalism!
Delwyn Lounsbury lives "off the grid" on 50 acres which has over a thousand trees and few neighbors in the San Francisco Bay Area of California.
He has been a licensed real estate agent since 1968 an is an award winning agent with Coldwell Banker, the largest real estate sales company in America. Coldwell Banker has been in existence since 1906. In the seventies he published "The Economic Survival Letter."
His relevant and informative articles have been published on and/or linked back to by a myriad of websites. Including: Askives.com, Wikihow.com, Zerohedge.com, Christianpress.com, Libertariannews.org, Debate.org, Belligenerentpolitics.com, Worldnewsonline.com, Freerepublic.com, Conservativefocus.com, Examiner.com, Businessweek.com, Glennbeck, Newswithviews.com, Chicagotribune.com, Thesuit.com, Seekingalpha, Beforitsnews, Thedailybell.com and 1,000 more. Please feel free to use these hard-hitting articles and also link us back to further the cause of Liberty & Freedom.
Legal Notice / Disclaimer: These website articles and information are not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to purchase any investment. Delwyn Lounsbury makes no guarantee, representation or warranty and accepts no responsibility or liability. They are opinion only. Contact your own broker for investing.
This website contains the ideas and opinions of the author. It is a conceptual exploration of financial and general economic principles past present and future. As with any financial discussion of the future, there cannot be any absolute certainty. What this website does not contain is specific investment, legal, tax or any other form of professional advice except to subscribe and pay heed to Elliott Wave International, the world's largest independent investment advisory service at links provided. We are affiliates to advertising on these pages and an affiliate of Elliott Wave International (EWI) and earn a commission for your joining a free Club EWI subscription and to their paid newsletter and other services. If specific advice is needed, it should be sought from an appropriate professional. Any liability, responsibility or warranty for the results of the application of principles contained in articles, websites, readings, videos, DVDs, books and related materials, either directly or indirectly, are expressly disclaimed by the author.
This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Dispatch: U.S. On the Precipice of Deflation. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.
A "major crash of the dollar"has already begun ... 100 years ago.
100 Years of Dollar Collapse Means THIS ...
FOUR CENTS. That's how appallingly little a dollar from 1913 (when the Federal Reserve began it's monopoly fiat money sabotage) is worth today. If you too are disturbed: Now you can protect your family with gold and silver – one of the few things people trust when all else fails.
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From: Robert Prechter’s Elliott Wave International. Elliott wave analysis seeks to understand the financial markets using wave patterns based on changing investor psychology as recorded by price movements. It’s an approach different from any other. You can sign up free - HERE
Robert R. Prechter, Jr. The percentage of bears among advisory services, as tallied by Investors Intelligence, just reached its lowest level of the current bull market: 13.3% (see figure below). This means 86.7% of advisors are bullish on the long-term trend. The percentage of bears hasn't been lower since 1987, during wave (5) of 3, near the end of the strongest wave in the bull market. That run resolved in the biggest crash since 1929.Study the chart and notice how many times since 2009 the percentage of bears has been below the lowest reading of 2007. Another amazing aspect of this indicator is the persistence of low numbers since 2012. This long run of uninterrupted optimism parallels the plateauing of momentum oscillators in overbought territory.
The market hasn’t taken a breath for over two years.When it finally exhales, I think it will collapse at the same time.The long period of optimism has made forecasters aggressively positive on stocks and the economy. An economist and an investment strategist at Morgan Stanley have just predicted that the S&P will rise 50% to 3,000 by 2020, 5.33 years from now. We agree entirely on the 3,000 number. We just disagree on the index.Citibank’s technical team is predicting an even faster gain, projecting the S&P as high as 2,400 by January 2015, four months from now. It even recommends that no one worry about the seasonally weak September-October period this year.At the same time, the chief international economist at Morgan Stanley predicts that the “recovery from the great recession could easily extend another five years,” with growth of 3.5% in 2015 and 3.8% in 2016 .He’s not alone. The consensus among economists is that the US will enjoy years of growth at a 3% clip.All these predictions have their bases, but we think one of them is unconscious: the shared optimism of the crowd. Major institutions can afford the smartest economists on the planet. We’re betting against them anyway.Recall that the consensus has also been calling for accelerating growth in Japan and Europe. But Japan has just reported a stunning 7.1% annualized rate of economic contraction for April, May, and June. That’s a depression rate.Meanwhile, Europe is on precipice of deflation, and the US may be as well, as we will discuss next.
A Rising US Dollar Will Signal the Triumph of Deflation
The persistence of inflation from 1933 to 2008 and the Fed’s historically aggressive “quantitative easing” program since that year have kept most people bearish on the future value of the dollar. Rarely does anyone mention that the US Dollar Index (the dollar valued against other currencies) has remained above its low of March 17, 2008, a period so far lasting 6.5 years, as shown in the figure below. After making a low in March 2008, the Dollar Index remained in a bottoming process for four months, until July 15, 2008. The Bloomberg index of commodities made its all-time closing high on July 2, 2008. Starting that month, both indexes changed direction and have not seen those extremes since. The Dollar Index tested the 2008 bottom with a daily closing low on April 29, 2011. Silver made its daily closing high for the decade on April 28, 2011.Once again, the Dollar Index remained in a bottoming process for four months, ending on August 29. Gold made a double top at that time, with daily closing highs of $1,898 on August 22 and $1,899.80 on September 5, 2011. These tops are exactly equally spaced from August 29, by one week on either side. Gold, silver, and the dollar changed direction that year and have not seen those extremes since.In other words, bottoms in the US Dollar Index came right when other indexes of inflation were making their all-time highs. Each time, they reversed together.Since 2008, near-term highs and lows in the Dollar Index have coincided with near-term lows and highs in commodities (see next figure) and stocks. Together they are tracking trends in inflation and deflation.As illustrated in the second figure, the joint reversal in the Dollar Index and in commodities in 2008 signaled the time at which decades of persistent inflation yielded to a standoff between inflation and deflation, which has continued ever since. During this period, the swings have been dramatic. Deflation was dominant as all markets fell into March 2009. Thereafter, inflation was dominant until the metals peaked in 2011. Since 2011, the standoff has gotten more balanced, with inflationary tendencies manifesting in the stock market and deflationary tendencies manifesting in the precious metals.
Commodities have taken a middle path, rising and falling underneath old highs.Drilling down, we can see that many minor turns in financial markets have also been related to the timing of turns in the Dollar Index. The latest bout of Dollar Index weakness ended on the closing low of May 6. The countertrend rally in the Bloomberg commodity index ended just a week earlier, on April 29. Since then, commodity prices have fallen while the dollar has risen. The Dollar Index has been especially strong since its near-term low of June 30.Not coincidentally, commodities ended their countertrend rally on June 25 and began crumbling hard.
Everyone’s favorite commodity—crude oil—has fallen from $107.73 to $91.80 per barrel just since June. Silver, which no one talks about any more, is back in the teens after peaking in 2011 at nearly $50/ounce. Gold has completed a beautiful contracting triangle on July 10 and is about to plunge to a new low for the bear market.We have long stated that when the stock market turns down, it will signal the final triumph of deflation, because then all markets will be reflecting deflation. When will that happen?The wave structures on all financial markets (per the Elliott wave labels in the final figure above, for example) are bearish except one: the US dollar. Investors have hated the dollar for many years, making it sold out on a long-term basis.
Near term, the Daily Sentiment Index (trade-futures.com) recently recorded only 4% bulls on the euro, so a counter-trend bounce against the dollar is in the offing. But long term, the dollar is probably starting a bull market. If the US dollar has started a major rise, all other markets are doomed. Since the stock market has been holding up in the face of the recently strong dollar, it seems likely that when stocks cave, they will play “catch-up” and cave big.To continue reading the rest of Prechter’s 18-page special double issue, plus all of Elliott Wave International’s latest analysis for US, European, and Asian-Pacific stocks, and the major metals, commodities, and currency pairs, Join the free. HURRY!
Back in 2008, I began warning of increasing capital controls that we would see in the future, as a component in the decline of Western economies (Western in the broad sense, including Japan, Australia, etc.)
Along the way, it occurred to me that, at some point, governments might collectively attempt to eliminate paper currency in favour of an electronic currency - transferred from party to party solely through licensed banks. Sound farfetched? Well, maybe, but what if the U.S. and EU agreed on an overall plan, then suggested it to other governments? On the face of it, this smacks of conspiracy theory, yet certainly, all governments would benefit from this control and would be likely to get on board. In fact, it might prove to be the only way out of their present economic problems.
So, how would it play out? Here’s roughly how I saw Phase I:
Link the free movement of cash to terrorism (Create a consciousness that any movement of large sums suggests criminal activity.);
Establish upper limits on the amount of money that can be moved without reporting to some government investigatory agency;
Periodically lower those limits;
Accustom people to making all purchases, however small or large, through a bank card;
Create a consciousness that the mere possession of cash is suspect, since it’s no longer “necessary”.
When I first wrote on the subject, there was considerable criticism as to the possibility that such a programme would ever be attempted, let alone succeed. And, granted, it was so Orwellian that it was understandably seen as a crackpot idea. But since that time, the programme has been developing extremely rapidly. In the last six months alone, it has become so visible that it has even garnered a name - “the War on Cash”.
References in the media have been made that terrorist groups fund their attacks with cash. Dozens of countries have placed limits on the maximum amount of money that can be moved without reporting. Some, notably France, have already begun lowering their limits. Banks in some countries, notably Sweden, are already treating all cash transactions as suspicious. The previously theoretical Phase I is now well under way.
This issue has expanded more quickly than I’d anticipated. Clearly, the governments that are forcing it into being are running out of time. There can only be one reason why they’d rush a programme that normally would be given more time for people to accept, and that’s that they see a crash coming before they can get Phase II of the programme underway.
Although most anyone who’s paying attention recognises that Phase I is in motion, Phase II (as I perceive it) is not yet on the radar, but I believe it will be soon. Phase II will be the second wave of measures and they will be more draconian than Phase I:
Create a definitive false flag event that demonstrates how physical cash is the primary means of funding evil acts in the world;
Declare a date on which paper currency will become illegal (Until that date, it can be deposited into a bank. After that date, it becomes criminal to possess it.);
Once all cash has been deposited in banks, increase negative interest rates;
Confiscation of deposits can then be implemented, as desired, by banks (Confiscation of deposits is already legal in Canada, the U.S., and the EU.);
Confiscate contents of selected safe deposit boxes;
End “voluntary” taxation. All taxation will, in future, be by direct debit;
Declare money to be the property of the State that issued it. (The people are allowed to trade in it, but it is not truly theirs. The State therefore can freeze or confiscate the funds in any account, if any crime is “suspected”.).
In recent months, I’ve warned repeatedly that, since confiscations of deposits will take place, we must assume that banks will additionally raid safe deposit boxes, as stated in the above list. Some banks, beginning with JPMorgan Chase, have placed limits on what forms of wealth can be placed in safe deposit boxes. Since then, Greece has taken this one step further. In future, Greek citizens will be required to declare cash exceeding €15,000, jewellery and precious stones valued at over €30,000 and declare the location of the safe deposit box in which they’re stored.
The declaration is fraught with difficulties for the depositor, as he bears the obligation to accurately appraise each item. Should authorities disagree with the appraisal of, say, Grandma’s diamond brooch, the depositor would be suspect and may face confiscation.
State Wealth Control
Once Phase II is completed, state wealth control will exist. And, again, this prediction will seem at first glance to be Orwellian - a mere fiction. But then, less than a year ago, the War on Cash was regarded by only a few as being even within the realm of possibility, let alone right around the corner. And so it is with Phase II. Now that Phase I is in motion, it’s accepted as an unsettling reality, but Phase II is the obvious sequel.
If you have cash in a bank, you think of it as your own. This is not the case. It’s wealth that you’ve loaned to the bank. In the future, the bank (with governmental approval) will have the power to decide if and when they will return all, or a part, of that cash to you. They will set the rules as to how that decision will be arrived at and those rules will be changed periodically. Since those rules will be arrived at by the banks (without need for your consent), the outcome will most certainly not be in your favour.
Those who read this statement might react in one of three ways:
“This can’t be happening.”
“Okay, it’s happening, but there’s nothing I can do about it. It’s global.”
“There must be something I can do to keep from being robbed.”
The first group will be the largest. They will freeze up, do little or nothing, and become victims. The second group may complain and even struggle a bit against these developments, but won’t prepare sufficiently and, ultimately, will also become victims.
The third group will seek alternatives, and here’s where the light appears at the end of the tunnel. Yes, this effort will be international, but it won’t be fully global. There will be those jurisdictions that, traditionally, have not been willing to fall into line with the world’s foremost powers. They will not wish to go off the same cliff as the others and will take a different tack. They will be the recipients of those people who seek to escape the collapsing system. But, more than ever before, time is limited; the window is clearly closing.
Escape from Confiscation
The solution is surprisingly simple, although it will take work and dedication:
If you’re a resident of any jurisdiction that’s presently going down this road, move your money to a jurisdiction that has a consistent history for stable government, low (or no) direct taxation, and minimal interference or regulation over wealth;
Convert your wealth into those forms of assets that are hardest for rapacious governments to confiscate (foreign-held precious metals and real estate);
Create an exit plan for your own physical escape, should it become necessary.
Editor’s Note: The War on Cash and negative interest rates are radical and insane measures. They are a sign of desperation.
They are also huge threats to your financial security. Central planners are playing with fire and inviting a currency catastrophe.
Most people have no idea what really happens when a currency collapses, let alone how to prepare…
How will you protect your savings in the event of a currency crisis? This just-released video will show you exactly how. Click here to watch it now.
Power of Prophecy and Texe Marrs have uncovered irrefutable evidence that Congress, including Republican House Speaker John Boehner and Republican Majority Leader Eric Cantor, has been working clandestinely since 2010, with Barack Obama and the White House to:
3. Set up a White House-run, military-style, technological Police State that will enslave all American citizens forever.
Over seven trillion dollars has been spent on these secret projects to turn the United States into the wheelhouse (center) of a miserable New World Order. The New World Order is at the command of elitist Zionists, and their traitorous gentile underlings, who own the global banking system, including the puppet Federal Reserve. Their coup d’etat of America is virtually complete.
Republican and Democrat politicians alike are complicit in this fraudulent system and conspiracy. Every politician, including Israeli lackeys Senator Ted Cruz and Senator Rand Paul, has sold out.
Every politician must be punished by removal from office. You and I cannot depend on any politician. If a man or a woman has been elected to the high office of U.S. Senator or the House of Representatives, he or she is corrupt and evil.
It is absolutely essential that every one of these sniveling cowards and liars be immediately removed from office. We must use every legal means at our disposal to remove and evict them. Voting does not work, since it means kicking one corrupt politician out and putting yet another deviant politician in. Do Not Vote. Do not waste your time, money, and energy.
We must immediately move to:
1. Remove all politicians from office.
2. Dismantle anything and everything connected to the federal government. (Everything of value devolves to the People of the 50 States).
3. Begin anew as free and individual Sovereign Peoples under a State Constitution that provides liberty and freedom to all and protects the innocent from commercial and government corruption, crime, and tyranny.*Let ours be a legal Jeffersonian Revolution to clean out the immoral and corrupt riff-raff and begin anew, seeking honesty, truth, freedom and liberty.
*Let us throw off the hard and velvet chains that hold us back from economic prosperity and individual freedom and liberty.
*Let us anew be free men and women, breathing in the fragrant odor of love, harmony, and goodwill for every fellow citizen who likewise cherishes and longs for liberty and justice.
*Let freedom ring and let the New World Order and its corrupt minions perish forever from our land.
Sincerely in Christ Jesus,
Author and Publisher: Delwyn Lounsbury - The Deflation Guru
Please visit our- www.deflationeconomy.com - How to survive the coming Zionist bankster caused deflationary Greater Depression. Hurry and get prepared! Store food, water, guns, mattress cash and necessities as a deep dire dangerous crash sends 90% of the value of most of your assets to money heaven..
The excrement is going to hit the fan. The banks will close and the ATM machines won't work. There will be riots in the streets as the biggest excess credit mania in history implodes with 90% drops most stocks, bonds, real estate, and collectibles. Unemployment will exceed 50%. Even gold (after bouncing to $1,450 or so in 2016) will likely drop to $700, or so. This is the big one people and it will not be over until 2022. In a bear market cash is king. Right, the only bull market will be in cash!
PS Don't plan on the markets coming back anytime soon this time. Hurry the crash is coming! BE (GET) PREPARED!!!
Go to his www.one-world-government.org - PLOT - A secret 300+ year totalitarian takeover try by a Zionist financial power elite central banksters cabal cartel and their cohorts - multinational corporations, crony military and punked educators. Conniving Zionist think tanks which run the world's governments behind the scenes. The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), the Trilateral Commission and the Bilderberg Group are all funded by giant corrupted tax exempt foundations controlling corrupt politicians, hoodwinked scholastic personnel, compromised government bureaucrats and other corrupted leaders. SUBVERSIVE SABOTAGE!
With near total control of the mainstream media and Hollywood, Zionists - BOTH - neocons (neoconservatives) and neolibs (neoliberals) - have directed history toward a fascist new world order dictatorship. 9/11 is their latest coup.
The War on Terrorism is the biggest white flag/red herring mania myth ever perpetrated on mankind.
World War Three and a New Dark Ages depopulating the planet will result if we don't stop them. It is we-the-people who sacrifice money, labor, blood, lives and our future (and our children's future) to fascist Zionist collectivist communist socialist globalist facilities like the pending trade tariff subterfuges and wars. Beware everything and anything connected to the United Nations. They plan on taking our freedom, liberty and our money.
BEWARE LOOMING LIBERTY LOSS AND MARTIAL LAW BY A BIG BROTHER FASCIST SURVEILLANCE STATE DICTATORSHIP RIGHT OUT OF GEORGE ORWELL'S "1984" BOOK.!
Prepare for the coming deflation of the Greater Depression. Beware WWIII and coming New Dark Ages feudalism! The elite modus operendi (MO) is always build tension and chaos - out of chaos comes order - a new world order and CONTROL. This is the Marxist Hegelian dialectic and it is always about tension and turmoil leading to bigger Leviathan government CONTROL - of you.
Join the Internet Reformation Revolution! Store food, water, cash, guns and essentials. We will have to fight to the last man standing.
Delwyn Lounsbury lives "off the grid" on 50 acres which has over a thousand trees and few neighbors in the San Francisco Bay Area of California. He is an Eagle Scout - trustworthy and loyal.
In the seventies Dell published "The Economic Survival Letter."
His relevant and informative articles have been published on and linked back to by a myriad of websites - Including: Askives.com, Wikihow.com, Zerohedge.com, Christianpress.com, Libertariannews.org, Debate.org, Belligenerentpolitics.com, Worldnewsonline.com, Freerepublic.com, Conservativefocus.com, Examiner.com, Businessweek.com, Glennbeck.com, Newswithviews.com, Chicagotribune.com, Thesuit.com, Seekingalpha.com, Beforeitsnews.com, Thedailybell.com, theburningplatform.com & more.
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WHY PRESIDENT JOHNSON, J. EDGAR HOOVER, THE CIA, MASSOD, MAFIA, BANKSTERS ALL ZIONISTS * KILLED PRESIDENT KENNEDY IN A FASCIST COUP TO FURTHER ONE WORLD GOVERNMENT BY SOCIALIST DICTATORSHIP * PS MAINSTREAM MEDIA, HOLLYWOOD AND BOTH POLITICAL PARTIES ARE NOW ZIONIST
JFK CONSPIRACY SPEECH - REASON PRESIDENT JOHNSON AND HEAD OF FBI - J. EDGAR HOOVER DO COVERT COUP KILLING PRESIDENT JOHN F KENNEDY.
THEN IN BANKSTER SECRET SUBVERSION SABOTAGE SCHEME - THEY HAVE JACK RUBY - (RUBENSTEIN - ZIONIST MAFIA) - CLEAN UP AND ASSASSINATE PATSY LEE HARVEY OSWALD
By JFK 1961
"The very word "secrecy" is repugnant in a free and open society; and we are as a people inherently and historically opposed to secret societies, to secret oaths and secret proceedings.
We decided long ago that the dangers of excessive and unwarranted concealment of pertinent facts far outweighed the dangers which are cited to justify it. Even today, there is little value in opposing the threat of a closed society by imitating its arbitrary restrictions.
Even today, there is little value in insuring the survival of our nation if our traditions do not survive with it. And there is very grave danger that an announced need for increased security will be seized upon those anxious to expand its meaning to the very limits of official censorship and concealment.
That I do not intend to permit to the extent that it is in my control.
And no official of my Administration, whether his rank is high or low, civilian or military, should interpret my words here tonight as an excuse to censor the news, to stifle dissent, to cover up our mistakes or to withhold from the press and the public the facts they deserve to know."
For we are opposed around the world by a monolithic and ruthless conspiracy that relies on covert means for expanding its sphere of influence--on infiltration instead of invasion, on subversion instead of elections, on intimidation instead of free choice, on guerrillas by night instead of armies by day.
It is a system which has conscripted vast human and material resources into the building of a tightly knit, highly efficient machine that combines military, diplomatic, intelligence, economic, scientific and political operations.
Its preparations are concealed, not published. Its mistakes are buried not headlined. Its dissenters are silenced, not praised. No expenditure is questioned, no rumor is printed, no secret is revealed."
"No President should fear public scrutiny of his program. For from that scrutiny comes understanding; and from that understanding comes support or opposition. And both are necessary.
I am not asking your newspapers to support the Administration, but I am asking your help in the tremendous task of informing and alerting the American people. For I have complete confidence in the response and dedication of our citizens whenever they are fully informed.
I not only could not stifle controversy among your readers-- I welcome it.
This Administration intends to be candid about its errors; for as a wise man once said: "An error does not become a mistake until you refuse to correct it." We intend to accept full responsibility for our errors; and we expect you to point them out when we miss them.
Without debate, without criticism, no Administration and no country can succeed-- and no republic can survive.
That is why the Athenian lawmaker Solon decreed it a crime for any citizen to shrink from controversy.
And that is why our press was protected by the First Amendment-- the only business in America specifically protected by the Constitution-- not primarily to amuse and entertain, not to emphasize the trivial and sentimental, not to simply "give the public what it wants"--but to inform, to arouse, to reflect, to state our dangers and our opportunities, to indicate our crises and our choices, to lead, mold, educate and sometimes even anger public opinion.
This means greater coverage and analysis of international news-- for it is no longer far away and foreign but close at hand and local. It means greater attention to improved understanding of the news as well as improved transmission. And it means, finally, that government at all levels, must meet its obligation to provide you with the fullest possible information outside the narrowest limits of national security...
And so it is to the printing press--to the recorder of mans deeds, the keeper of his conscience, the courier of his news-- that we look for strength and assistance, confident that with your help man will be what he was born to be: free and independent."
Barack Hussein Obama never wrote the book advertised here in a 1991
publishers promotional pamphlet put out by his literary agency, Acton
& Dystel, of a coming Obama book for sale, "Images in Black and
Instead, Obama wrote (some say communist Bill Ayers
actually wrote) "Dreams from My Father" an autobiography with a
socialist slant depicting his communist father as an anticolonialist
blaming the west for all the world's ills.
That is where lawless
Obama's rogue renegade radical leftist transforming change ideas came
from. Obama's upbringing came from communist family members (father and
both grandparents on his mothers side), socialist mother and friends. In
fact, Obama's mentor and tutor. Frank Marshal Davis, was on the FBI
communist watch list - member of Communist Party USA (CPUSA) card number
47544. Then came Marxist groups in college and finally socialist groups
like the New Party in Chicago where he was a community organizer
See actual brochure from his publicist stating Barack Hussein Obama was born in Kenya, Africa - above.
"Hope and Change" campaign slogan has morphed into WE HOPE HE CHANGES.
Narcissist Obama showed himself to be an ideologue and a fascist
dictator puppet and mole for the criminal Anglo American financial power
elite international central banking families. This criminal cabal run
by the Zioniist Rothschild and Rockefeller family cabal cartel control
all the central (sovereign) banks of the world and wants one world
government/new world order aka new underworld order control goal of
global socialist fascist dictatorship at any cost or means.
in the Greater Depression, which actually began with the year 2000 dot
com bust, along with the plight of most American citizens worsened under
his statist agenda. Obama's legacy will be trillions of wasted stimulus
spending, grotesque government growth and over 1,000 dictatorial
executive orders - many unconstitutional - most illegal - all socialist
Working for his elite Rothschild handlers,
Obama has led us to the brink of economic collapse and planned coup by
Zionist bankster oligarchs who already control both political parties in
A phony Iran, Syrian and Ukrainian war leading to a
phony World War Three threatening the very survival of mankind is next
if we don't stop the insanity. Watch out for false flag nuclear
explosions in the Ukraine and Iran.
The American, NATO and
Israel elite scheme is to get the people so confused and demoralized
that they can abscond with the last of the world's middle classes power,
freedom and money in the coming Greatest Depression.
THINK: BIG BROTHER AND THE MAFIA JOIN UP!
The BANKSTER elite want a fascist socialist one world government dictatorship.
It's all about control of you and I. Pure Tyranny!